With the election bugle having been blown, the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir is all set for a multi-cornered contest. Even if there are one or two alliances, there still will be more than two or three players in the contest across the 90 seats of the union territory.
Jammu and Kashmir will go to elections next month, after a gap of ten years. The last assembly elections were held there in 2014.
There are four mainstream political parties, including the National Conference, the Indian National Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the People’s Democratic Party in the fray. Besides, there are other splinter groups like the People’s Conference, the Apni Party, the Democratic Progressive Azad Party and Engineer Rashid.
Rashid is likely to field his candidates in Kashmir valley, particularly in the north after getting elected as an independent candidate from Baramulla-Kupwara parliamentary constituency defeating former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah.
The Congress and the National Conference fought the General Elections together as part of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Although Mehbooba Mufti's PDP was also initially a part of the INDIA bloc, she was left out during the elections as the NC and Congress did not spare any constituency for the PDP and it contested alone on its own and failed to win any seat.
Having fought together in alliance in the parliamentary elections, the NC and the Congress can carry it forward to the assembly elections also. There is a likelihood of the two parties coming together for the assembly elections also to strengthen their prospects, but so far both parties have maintained a silence.
While the four mainstream parties are likely to put up a better show, not much is expected of the parties like the People’s Conference, Apni Party or the Democratic Azad Party. People’s Conference may expect to perform better in one or two assembly segments, it may face tough competition from the candidates to be fielded by Engineer Rashid.
Rashid has primarily captured the same constituency represented by the People’s Conference and those who are opposed to both the National Conference as well as the Congress.
Even if the Congress and the National Conference stitch a pre-poll alliance, it will be a tough contest for them. The National Conference and the Congress have their strongholds in the Kashmir and the Jammu regions respectively.
In Kashmir, the NC will have to face a tough challenge from the PDP in south Kashmir and the People’s Conference and Engineer Rashid in north Kashmir.
Similarly, the Congress has a tough contest ahead in the Jammu region, which continues to remain a BJP stronghold. The BJP won both the parliamentary constituencies of the Jammu region, leading 29 of the 36 assembly segments falling in these two parliamentary constituencies.
There was a close fight in 10 more. The Congress can expect to do better this time since the assembly elections will not have the same issues as the General Elections.
As the situation looks like right now, and with so many players, some significant and some marginal, Jammu and Kashmir look like headed for a hung verdict, which may eventually lead to some post-poll alliance also. Right now, no party and even no alliance appears to be in a position to form a government on its own.
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