opinion

Despite strictly being a bilateral issue, the continuously deteriorating relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan has always concerned India in ways both geographical and geopolitical. 

There is serious unease over India’s closeness to Israel. Just two days after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Pakistan President Asif Zardari went on record to say India wants another war with Pakistan. A belief has started gaining ground in Pakistan that the country “will” be the next target after Iran and it will be India and Israel that will attack it.

Having left more than six countries—Libya, Syria, Sudan, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon—completely destabilised through prolonged conflict and civilisational clashes, Netanyahu’s strategy now culminates in the Balkanisation of Iran to establish Israel as the unchallenged regional hegemon.

The mere possibility that several million barrels per day could be disrupted is enough to push prices up, even before supply is properly hit. This reflects a broader feature of geopolitical risk: expectations and perceptions can be as economically powerful as material disruptions.

In current times and circumstances, diplomacy is and should not be guided or driven by supposed moral principles but by practical and pragmatic realities and necessities. India has no reason to take a high moral ground and that too for no reason, when being neutral serves the purpose better.

Oil isn’t like most commodities. It has shaped global politics for decades and only a few countries have large reserves. Three-quarters of the world’s population live in countries dependent on oil imports for cars, trucks and other uses. Any serious disruption to tanker traffic in the Gulf would send shockwaves through global oil markets and threaten economic stability.

Khamenei will not be remembered by most Iranians as a strong leader. Nor will he be revered. Instead, his legacy will be the profound weakness his regime brought the Islamic Republic on all fronts.

If a 100 per cent Muslim country like Saudi Arabia does not have any moral or religious compunction to stand with the “Zionist” Israel, why should India? For India, national interest comes first above everything else. Israel has proved to be the most reliable friend to India.

Trump is setting a dangerous precedent by running over sovereign countries. He has already disrupted the global rule-based economic order with his unilateral punitive tariffs and now he is unsettling the global diplomatic regime. This must stop.

Khamenei was both a political and spiritual leader. He has commanded followers not only among devout Shias in Iran, but also many Muslims across the wider region. His assassination will spur some of them to seek revenge, potentially sparking a wave of extremist violent actions in the region and beyond.

US-Israeli strikes on Iran risk widening the conflict across the Middle East, disrupting oil supplies and triggering global political and economic turmoil.

Four years into the Ukraine war, mounting military and economic strain on all sides may offer the strongest chance yet for a negotiated peace.