Economists project that India's GDP growth for the fourth quarter of the 2023–24 fiscal year will likely be between 6.1% and 6.7%, a decrease from the over 8% growth recorded in the previous three quarters. The government is scheduled to release the GDP numbers for the fourth quarter on May 31.
For the entire fiscal year 2023–24, economists estimate the growth to be in the range of 7.6%–7.8%. High-frequency data suggests robust growth across various sectors, with manufacturing and trade showing resilience. However, there are concerns about the agriculture sector potentially contracting.
Kotak Mahindra Bank's Chief Economist, Upasna Bhardwaj, anticipates 6.1% GDP growth for the fourth quarter, resulting in a full-year GDP growth close to 7.6%. She notes some moderation in economic activity in the services and industrial segments.
Looking ahead to the fiscal year 2024–25, Kotak Mahindra Bank expects growth to be 6.6%, with rural consumption likely to increase but having potential impacts on export growth.
EY India's Chief Policy Advisor, DK Srivastava, and other institutions forecast robust growth of around 7% for India in the fiscal year 2025.
Srivastava anticipates GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024 to surpass 6.5%, leading to an annual growth close to 7.8%, as projected by the IMF.
India Ratings & Research expects the country's GDP growth rate for the March quarter to be 6.2% for 2023–24.
ICRA projects India's GDP growth to moderate to a four-quarter low of 6.7% in the March quarter of 2023–24 fiscal year, with full-year estimates at 7.8%.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its monetary policy review in April, projected GDP growth for 2023–24 at 7%.
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