Indian equity benchmarks opened in positive territory on Thursday, buoyed by domestic resilience, even as investors remained jittery over global headwinds and uncertainty surrounding the impending US-India trade negotiations.
The NSE Nifty 50 rose by 51.70 points to 25,505.10 at the opening bell, while the BSE Sensex edged up by 131.05 points to begin at 83,540.74. Broader indices mirrored the cautious optimism — Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.17 per cent and Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.19 per cent.
Market participants, however, remained cautious amid the approach of the US tariff deadline, due on the night of July 8, which may define short-term market direction. Experts said volatility is likely to intensify as trade uncertainties unfold.
Ajay Bagga, a banking and market expert said, “Indian markets are under the global volatility haze and waiting for a signal on a US-India trade deal. Domestic factors are favouring markets to scale back above all-time highs in the next few weeks.”
Bagga also pointed to recent developments in US trade policy. “Trump's announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam, which involves 20 per cent tariffs on Vietnamese goods exports and 40 per cent tariffs on trans-shipped goods transiting through Vietnam enroute to the US, and offers 0 per cent full market access to US goods to the Vietnam markets, enthused markets,” he added.
“We are in the last 5 days of the US tariff deadline of July 8th night. Most trade deals have stalled on hardening positions on both sides. Next week expect volatility as the deadline looms. We expect a postponement of the reciprocal tariffs or the levying of a universal tariff of 10 per cent to 20 per cent,” Bagga added.
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Sectoral indices showed strength, led by IT, with Nifty IT climbing 0.69 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto at 0.66 per cent and Nifty Metal at 0.45 per cent. FMCG stocks also contributed to the uptrend with a 0.27 per cent gain.
Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities, said the ongoing decline may not necessarily signal weakness. “The Nifty fell yesterday in what is now a three-day retreat. Technically speaking, we are only consolidating the bullish rectangle breakout and as long as the 25,200-25,270 area is protected, bulls are merely taking a breather,” he said.
“Under 25,200, we risk 25,000. On the upside, the recent swing high at 25,670 is where the bullish trigger lies. With the deadline for the tariff pause expiring next week, it will be interesting to see if the current optimism globally holds up. Today is weekly derivatives expiry, so higher than usual volatility may be seen,” Chinchalkar added.
Asian indices presented a mixed picture. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.88 per cent. The Straits Times in Singapore slipped 0.11 per cent. Conversely, Taiwan’s Weighted index rose 0.9 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI edged up 0.95 per cent.
Investors are likely to remain watchful over the next few sessions, as clarity on global trade policy and tariff outcomes could steer the market’s near-term course.
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