new-eu-sanctions-on-russia-put-india-s-oil-trade-at-risk

India’s petroleum product exports worth $15 billion to the European Union could be at risk as Brussels tightens sanctions on Russian crude refined in third countries, according to a report by economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

 

The European Union’s 18th package of sanctions, announced recently, aims to further squeeze revenue streams for Russia’s oil and energy sectors amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

 

A key element of the new measures is a ban on imports of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude oil and exported via any third country, with exceptions only for select allies including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Switzerland.

 

The move threatens the export prospects of major oil refiners such as India, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, which have been importing large quantities of Russian crude oil, processing it, and selling diesel, petrol and jet fuel to European buyers.

 

“India’s $15 billion exports of petroleum products to the EU are at risk. The EU’s new sanctions ban imports of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude via third countries like India,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.

 

India’s total petroleum product exports to the EU stood at $19.2 billion in the financial year 2023-24 but fell by 27.1 per cent to about $15 billion in 2024-25, the think tank said. It added that India’s crude oil imports from Russia were valued at $50.3 billion in FY25, accounting for more than a third of India’s total crude oil bill of $143.1 billion.

 

Although India’s crude imports and fuel exports remain within the bounds of international trade rules, the changing political narrative in the West could place New Delhi in a difficult position, experts say.

 

“While India continues to engage in legitimate trade with Russia, the political optics of such transactions are shifting in Western capitals. As energy ties deepen, India will have to walk a fine line between economic pragmatism and geopolitical pressure,” Srivastava added.

 

The EU’s latest sanctions underline Europe’s continued push to limit Moscow’s ability to finance its war effort by targeting not just direct Russian oil exports but also flows indirectly entering Europe through third countries.