US President Trump declared on Friday that his administration could soon be closing a landmark trade deal with India before the stipulated July 9 deadline. Sources privy to the details of the deliberations on the India-US trade pact had revealed yesterday that talks were encountering roadblocks when it came to agriculture, dairy, and metals sectors.
Think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has now advised India to protect its farmers, digital ecosystem, and policy space in its agreement with the US. It cautioned the country against agreeing to a politically-driven or one-sided pact that favours the US.
Currently, India’s chief trade negotiator is in Washington DC as talks between the two countries gain traction. With the two sides looking to finalise an interim trade pact before July 9, it remains to be seen whether India and the US settle for a mini-deal or hold off talks for the time being even as Trump’s 90-day tariff suspension timeline draws to a close. Announced on April 2, Trump had said a trade pact must be finalized before the deadline or high tariffs will be in place on Indian goods.
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As the clock ticks, GTRI founder Ajay Srivastavasaid on Friday that he expected a limited trade pact to emerge as a result of the current discussions, styled after the US-UK mini trade deal that was announced on May 8.
"Any trade deal with the US must not be politically driven or one-sided, it must protect our farmers, our digital ecosystem, and our sovereign regulatory space," he said.
According to the think tank, India is expected to cut tariffs on a wide range of industrial goods, including automobiles, which has been a persistent demand from Washington.
In agriculture, India may offer limited market access through tariff reductions and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on select US products such as ethanol, almonds, walnuts, apples, raisins, avocados, olive oil, spirits, and wine, it added.
Agricultural goods account for less than 5 per cent of US exports to India.
Beyond tariffs, the US is expected to press India for large-scale commercial purchases, including oil and LNG, civilian and military aircraft from Boeing, helicopters, and nuclear reactors, it said.
"There may also be pressure on India to ease FDI restrictions in multi-brand retail, potentially benefiting firms like Amazon and Walmart and to liberalise rules on remanufactured goods, currently subject to stringent import norms," Srivastava said.
It has also been speculated that Washington’s pressure may widen India-US trade deficit instead of narrowing it down as US’ exports will be higher and at greater tariffs.
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