US sanctions on India for purchasing Russian crude couldn’t dent its supplies to India, as per preliminary data by a global trade analytics firm.
India’s crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country’s total oil purchases at around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 2,20,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year, showed data by Kpler.
However, this was roughly 1,60,000 bpd below the average Russian volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025, the data further revealed.
Despite US pressure on India to curb its trade with Russia over concerns that it supports Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, Russian crude maintained its position as the largest single supplier, contributing about 1.6 million bpd – a 34 per cent share.
“Despite the dip, Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners, given their high GPW (gross product worth) margins and discounts relative to alternatives,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler.
Also Read: Indian refiners seek to fully restore Russian crude oil imports
Iraq was the second biggest crude oil supplier to India at around 8,81,115 bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at 6,03,471 bpd and the UAE at 5,94,152 bpd. The United States was India’s fifth largest supplier at 2,06,667 bpd.
Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, Russia became India’s top crude oil supplier, overtaking traditional sources like Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Moscow’s offering of steep discounts on its crude oil prompted Indian refiners to ramp up purchases as some Western nations boycotted Russian purchases. As India met its domestic demand with increased Russian oil barrels, Russian oil shares rose from less than 1 per cent prior to the Ukraine war to over 40 per cent.
In July, six months into his presidency, US President Donald Trump first threatened tariffs on Indian imports to pressure New Delhi to reduce its Russian oil purchases. He then imposed an additional 25 per cent tariffs on Indian imports to the US, on top of the existing 25 per cent duty. However, he has not imposed similar measures against China, which is another major buyer of Russian oil.
India has since attempted to expand and diversify its oil market, but Ritolia says it seems like Russian oil will continue to dominate India’s purchases, considering an expected rise in demand during the festive season.
“Russian barrels are likely to remain the core of the import mix, though refiners are clearly placing more emphasis on diversification across the Middle East, Americas, and Africa,” he said.
While India-bound Russian spot loadings may remain flat to slightly higher in October-December when compared to the previous quarter, India will not scale down the purchases significantly.
“Still, ongoing disruptions to Russia’s downstream system suggest crude exports will remain healthy, and discounts could edge higher again to support flows,” he remarked.
In October-December, current flows of 1.6-1.8 million bpd of Russian imports look “more realistic”, with upside capped unless market dynamics (higher discounts) shift significantly in Russia’s favour, Ritolia added.
As EU sanctions tighten from January 2026, Turkey may be forced to reduce its Russian crude intake, which may bode well for India as Russian crude oil barrels – estimated at 3,50,000 bpd in Q3 2025 – that have been rejected by Turkey, may make their way to Asia, especially India and China.
“The Russia-India crude relationship is now more about balance than barrels. India is unlikely to step away from Russian supplies in the near to mid-term. Russian barrels still priced below most other grades, and even with narrower discounts compared to the USD 10-20 per barrel spreads seen earlier, refiners won’t leave a dollar on the table unless directed by New Delhi – just as happened with Iranian barrels,” said Ritolia.
While there has been a stronger push for diversification, Russian crude remains central.
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