Global economic growth is expected to reach just 2.6 percent in 2024, a figure hovering barely above the 2.5 percent threshold often associated with recession, according to the latest UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report released on Tuesday.
Despite this gloomy global outlook, India's economy stands out with a projected expansion of 6.5 percent in 2024, fueled by robust public investment and growth in the service sector.
In Europe, economic challenges persist, particularly in countries like Germany and Italy, where weak economic activity, industrial slowdowns, and fiscal constraints are hampering growth prospects.
The Americas are also experiencing a slowdown, with Argentina grappling with severe inflation and Brazil facing external pressures and a reliance on commodities that dampen economic momentum. However, North America remains relatively resilient despite ongoing challenges.
Africa is forecasted to see a modest growth uptick to 3.0 percent in 2024, up slightly from 2.9 percent in 2023. However, armed conflicts and climate impacts continue to pose significant challenges in several countries, while major economies like Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa are underperforming, impacting overall prospects.
Meanwhile, growth in the Oceania region, particularly in Australia, is expected to remain subdued, extending into 2024.
The report also highlights a significant contraction in global merchandise trade by about 1 percent in real terms in 2023, attributed in part to trade tensions among major economies and subdued global demand.
Over the past six months, disruptions in key shipping routes, such as the severe drought affecting the Panama Canal and attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, have further strained merchandise trade and significantly increased shipping costs, the report notes.
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