The stock markets will be driven by the impending reciprocal tariffs on global trade, overseas market trends, and foreign investor activity in the upcoming holiday-shortened week, analysts have said.
Indian stock exchanges will remain closed on Monday for Eid-Ul-Fitr.
The United States has threatened to impose reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, including India, from 2 April, a move that could have broad implications on global commerce.
"All eyes are now on Trump's April 2 tariff announcement," said Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.
Among the key macroeconomic indicators, investors will track the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing and services sectors.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, observed, "With the upcoming holiday-shortened week, market participants will turn their attention to global developments in the absence of major domestic triggers. The implementation of reciprocal tariffs from April 2 and its broader implications on global trade will be closely monitored."
Market experts note that foreign institutional investor (FII) activity will be a crucial factor in shaping market movements, especially in light of the anticipated US tariffs.
Also read: India faces $31 bn export loss risk from US tariffs
"Going forward, the trend in FII flows will depend mainly on Trump's reciprocal tariffs expected on April 2nd. If the tariffs are not severe, the rally may continue," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
In recent weeks, there has been a notable shift in FII strategy from persistent selling to measured buying, which has gained momentum.
Apart from global tariff developments, investors will also monitor the rupee-dollar exchange rate and movements in global crude oil prices, particularly Brent crude.
"This week is expected to offer greater clarity on tariff developments, enabling investors to assess their impact on the global economy. Key economic indicators to watch include US job opening data and India's PMI, both of which will provide insights into economic momentum in their respective regions," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd.
Investor attention will gradually shift towards corporate earnings, which are expected to provide a clearer picture of earnings recovery.
In the past week, the BSE Sensex advanced by 509.41 points, or 0.66 per cent, while the NSE Nifty gained 168.95 points, or 0.72 per cent.
During the 2024-25 fiscal year, the BSE benchmark index surged 3,763.57 points, or 5.10 per cent, and the Nifty rose 1,192.45 points, or 5.34 per cent.
The total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies soared by Rs 25,90,546.73 crore to Rs 4,12,87,646.50 crore (USD 4.82 trillion) in FY25.
Follow us
