The tribal outreach of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been the biggest enigma for Rahul Gandhi and his suave and sophisticated strategists to decode and defeat.
However, for a decade, Rahul Gandhi and his party—the Congress—have been trying to charm tribal voters with promises, some even surpassing rhetoric.
The Congress even repackaged some old whines and exhausted narratives to stir controversy by alleging that the BJP deliberately refers to tribal communities as Vanwasi to erase their tribal identity.
But neither did such allegations graduate beyond single-column news nor did the promises of the Congress gain significant traction among tribal communities even Rahul projecting himself as an anti-mining mascot.
As the battlelines for the first phase of the loud and long fight of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have been drawn, the growing appeal of the BJP among tribal voters has left the Congress worried especially those Hindi heartland states which the BJP won in recent assembly elections by reducing the Congress to rubble.
These three states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — which the BJP won, account for 47 parliamentary seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs).
These are the significant tribal pockets that played a crucial role in pushing Modi to power in 2014 and 2019. While the BJP is trying to maximise its tally, the Congress is gasping to overturn its electoral fortunes.
There was a time when these 47 tribal seats were predominantly bastions of the Congress. But in less than a decade, the tribal mood witnessed a significant shift from the Congress to the BJP. In 2009 the BJP would win 13 seats out of 47 seats.
This tally doubled in 2014 when the BJP won 27 in 2014. The BJP further increased its tally in 2019 with 31 seats. The Modi factor acted as a great catalyzer.
The 2019 may not be one of the best performances of the BJP on the performance parameters set by Modi and Amit Shah who are known for their undying passion to win seats, but, the Congress had the worst ever performance. The party won four out of 47 seats.
BJP’s landslide victory in the Assembly elections in these states is largely believed to be a pro-tribal policy of the Modi government. He has drawn long-term strategies and launched programmes to connect tribal voters with the BJP.
The introduction of an aspirational district programme to cover tribal areas, tribal-centric projects, PM Janman Yojana for Particularly Vulnerable Tribal groups with an outlay of Rs. 24,000 Crore, three times increase in Eklavya Model Residential Schools since 2014 etc manoeuvred poll dynamics in the favour of the BJP.
These states account for 31% of the tribal population of India. Chhattisgarh has a significant tribal population (30.6 per cent) followed by Madhya Pradesh (21.1 per cent) and Rajasthan which has a 13.49 percent tribal population.
Recognising the contributions of iconic tribal legend Bhagwan Birsa Munda, the Modi government announced to commemorate his 125 birth anniversary as Janjatiya Gaurav Divas.
Modi picked a tribal woman politician from Odisha, Draupadi Murmu to get her elected as the first tribal President of the country. The BJP was able to set a narrative to become the only party that genuinely thinks for the tribals.
The Congress faced criticism for its approach, engaging in confrontation rather than agreeing to the consensus election of Murmu. The Congress threw its weight behind Yashwant Sinha. These helped the BJP to gain the confidence of tribal voters.
The budgetary allocations for tribal welfare have witnessed a three-fold increase since FY 2013-14 (Rs 12,461.88 Crore) and FY 2023-24 (Rs. 12,461.88 Crore) and Modi and his machinery ensured that each penny reaches real beneficiaries.
Assembly poll results are the sample of the shifting mood of tribal voters.
No wonder when the BJP was facing huge anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh where CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan was personally facing a fatigue factor, the party won 24 out of 47 ST-reserved seats in the assembly elections.
The same was the case with Chhattisgarh which initially appeared an impregnable bastion of the Congress. Here the BJP won 17 out of 29 assembly seats reserved for tribals.
It was the same BJP that had miserably lost Chhattisgarh to the Congress in the 2018 assembly polls. The BJP could win just three ST-reserved assembly seats out of 28. The Congress won 25 such seats.
In Rajasthan too, the BJP made a comeback with the help of tribal votes. The party netted 12 out of 25 ST reserved seats. All these states the Congress had won in 2018.
To win back tribal votes, the Congress is offering five key assurances under ‘Adivasi Nyay’ aimed at protecting forests and tribal lands.
The Congress promises to set a national mission to implement the Forest Rights Act, a separate budget, and an action plan for the resolution of pending FRA claims. Additionally, the Congress pledges to repeal all amendments introduced by the Modi government to the Forest Conservation Act and Land Acquisition Act.
The BJP offers to unlock the potential of minor forest produce and encourages innovative and technology-driven startups to initiate commercially viable and sustainable forest-based enterprises.
Juries are still out but Rahul’s worries are of course Modi’s delight.
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