Speculations are rife over a possible alliance between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the opposition Congress in Punjab. Although the two parties have taken stringently opposing positions in Punjab till the recent past, the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal appears to have made the leaders of both parties rethink their strategy.
The speculation gained further ground after the Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge during his speech at Ramlila Maidan ‘Save Democracy’ rally organised to protest Kejriwal’s arrest on March 31, specifically mentioned the Punjab Chief Minister suggesting that they (the Congress and the AAP) should be together.
The leaders of both parties are tightlipped on the issue while they admit in private that “something” is brewing up in Delhi. While earlier, some Punjab leaders in both parties were strongly opposed to any alliance, including Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann from AAP and the Congress Legislative Party leader Partap Singh Bajwa as both of them were opposed to any alliance, some subsequent developments may come down to some extent.
Some significant developments in the recent past, including the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister and the two sitting MPs, Ravneet Singh Bittu (Ludhiana) from Congress and Sushil Rinku from AAP (Jalandhar), joining the BJP have come as a grave setback for the two parties. Both are apprehensive of an aggressive BJP poaching on their leaders.
Despite being considered a marginal player so far, the way BJP has been fielding quite strong candidates has made the political parties rethink their opinions about and approach towards the party. The BJP is a force to reckon with in constituencies like Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Amritsar, Patiala, Anandpur Sahib, Hoshiarpur and Gurdaspur. The party is very much in an equal fight in all these constituencies. In a multi-cornered contest between the AAP, the Congress, the Akalis and the BJP, it stands a fair chance of winning.
In case the AAP and the Congress align together, despite certain reservations in certain quarters, it is going to be a strong alliance. It is not that all the votes will get transferred to each other, that never happens, but a substantial number will get transferred, thus strengthening the position and chances of both parties.
A possible tie-up between the AAP and the Congress has the risk of triggering a rethink among the BJP and the Akalis. Although that may look quite unlikely at this stage, in case an AAP-Congress alliance happens, which would sound more unlikely till the recent past, there is no reason that the Akalis and the BJP cannot come together. After all, they have been together for decades, till just two years ago.
While a four-cornered contest will be a “free for all” thing, the AAP and the Congress will be in an advantageous position. Rather the Congress will be in a better position in that situation having its support and cadres spread across all the areas, including rural as well as urban and among all communities.
In the four-cornered contest, there may not be any clear winners, but in case of a three-cornered contest with AAP and Congress fighting together and the BJP and Akalis fighting separately, it will be a significant advantage to the AAP-Congress alliance.
And in a bipolar contest, in case the BJP and the Akalis also come together, it will be a tough fight, too difficult to predict. However, the Akali-BJP alliance may have some advantage, as any ruling party or alliance has the disadvantage of “local” anti-incumbency, which does get reflected in the voting pattern. And Punjab has a history of the “local” (state) ruling party/alliance getting a serious drubbing on most of the occasions during the parliamentary elections.
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