telugu-states-offer-a-mixed-bag-for-national-parties

For the national parties—Congress and BJP—seeking to expand their footprint in the upcoming general elections, the sibling Telugu states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh present contrasting electoral battles.

 

While Telangana is witnessing a resurgent Congress, fresh from its stunning success in the recent assembly polls, gearing up for the May 13 Lok Sabha polls with renewed vigour, it is still an existential struggle for the grand old party in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh.

 

The BJP too is a virtual non-entity in AP but in Telangana, it has emerged as a main challenger to Congress in the coming Parliamentary elections because of the swift decline in the fortunes of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) after losing power in the November assembly polls.

 

It is going to be a direct clash between the two national parties in Telangana in the wake of a weakened BRS.

 

However, in Andhra, the presence of formidable regional players—the ruling YSR Congress Party headed by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the Telugu Desam Party led by N Chandrababu Naidu and actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party—has virtually squeezed out space for the national parties. They are forced to look for tie-ups with local players as they no longer have the luxury of going it alone in the elections.

 

The BJP, a marginal player in AP having secured less than one per cent votes in the 2019 polls, has revived its alliance with the TDP and is piggyback riding on the two regional parties—TDP and Jana Sena—in the coming simultaneous polls to assembly and Lok Sabha in Andhra. The TDP-JSP-BJP combine is hoping to dislodge the Jagan Mohan Reddy government.  

 

Ever since the division of Andhra Pradesh to carve out a separate Telangana state in 2014, the two national parties—Congress and BJP—have been facing the wrath of Andhra voters. The voters of the residual Andhra feel that they have been meted out a raw deal in the bifurcation and hold both the national parties responsible for it.

 

Double Whammy

 

For Congress, which had granted the statehood during UPA-I, it was a double whammy as it faced the anger of Andhra voters on one hand and yielded the political advantage in Telangana to the K Chandrasekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) which had spearheaded the statehood movement in Telangana. The TRS, which was later renamed BRS, went on to win two consecutive elections in 2014 and 2018, positioning itself as the sole claimant to Telangana's identity.

 

Even until a year ago, most political pundits thought KCR was invincible and was on track to score a hat trick. This was despite the palpable anti-incumbency and public anger against the local TRS legislators. The Congress camp was in such disarray that it was often called a ‘patient in the ICU’.

 

The dramatic turnaround for the grand old party happened following the appointment of A Revanth Reddy, a firebrand leader and an aggressive campaigner in the mould of popular Congress chief minister late YS Rajasekhar Reddy, in 2021. He turned out to be the face of a resurgent Congress and steered the party to a stupendous victory in the November 2023 assembly polls as the party bagged 65 seats in the 119-member assembly, up from just 19 in the previous election.

 

From a near-oblivion state to emerging as a dominant player, it has been a spectacular journey for the Congress in Telangana. And the momentum is clearly with the resurgent Congress ahead of the May 13 election. With the BRS camp thoroughly demoralised, the contest in Telangana is set to be between the two national parties this time.

 

Of sibling war and revival of old friendship in Andhra

 

Keen to revive their fortunes in Andhra, the Congress and BJP have adopted different political strategies. While Congress has roped in YS Sharmila, the estranged sister of the Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, and appointed her as the state party chief in January this year, the BJP has lured its old ally TDP back into the NDA fold.

 

Both Congress and BJP drew a blank in the 2019 polls in Andhra which has 25 LS seats and 175 members in the Assembly.

 

Sharmila’s entry has now triggered a sibling battle to claim the political legacy of their father late YS Rajasekhar Reddy, a respected figure whose welfare policies and pro-poor image still find resonance among voters even 14 years after he died in a helicopter crash.  She lost no time in attacking her brother for failing to keep up the promises made by their father, making compromises with the ‘communal’ BJP, pursuing vindictive politics, and pushing the state into a debt trap with his reckless policies.

 

For a party that has been in limbo for nearly ten years, having faced back-to-back electoral debacles, the entry of Sharmila is expected to boost the morale of the cadre. While it would be unreasonable to expect the grand old party, whose vote share was less than 2 per cent in the 2019 polls, to pull off a quick turnaround and make electoral gains, the local change of guard is bound to breathe life into the moribund organisation.

 

AP was once considered a stronghold of the Congress. It was a major contributor to the UPA’s kitty in 2004 and 2009. On both occasions, YSR had steered the party to victory in the combined state, cementing his position as a strong regional satrap.

 

As part of its mission to expand its footprint in the South, where it is on a weak wicket, the BJP has revived its alliance with the TDP, nearly six years after the regional party walked out of the NDA to protest against the Centre’s refusal to grant special category status to AP.

 

The revival of the alliance between BJP and TDP is widely seen in political circles as a win-win proposition. The BJP hopes to get a foothold in the state with the help of a formidable player like TDP. On its part, the TDP leadership is convinced that a combined opposition alone can dislodge the Jagan Mohan Reddy government.

 

The TDP circles feel that though BJP is a marginal player in AP politics, the alliance with it would help in future in the likely event of the NDA returning to power at the Centre.

 

As part of the alliance, the BJP will contest 6 LS and 10 assembly seats in AP.