british-rusi-report-predicts-potential-india-china-war-by-2030

A recent report from the UK-based Royal United Society Institute (RUSI) highlights the growing tensions between India and China, forecasting a possible military confrontation between the two nations sometime between 2025 and 2030. 

 

Amid global focus on conflicts in Israel-Palestine and Ukraine, the RUSI report draws attention to the increasingly volatile situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh, a region of strategic importance to both countries.

 

Analysts are shifting their focus from the expected Taiwan scenario to the potential of a second China-India war in Eastern Ladakh within the next five to six years. 

 

This area, lying within the Indian Union territory, holds significant strategic value due to its location between the Indus River and west of the LAC, adjacent to the Aksai Chin area controlled by China since their 1962 conflict.

 

The report underscores the critical geostrategic importance of Eastern Ladakh for both nations, suggesting that any conflict in this region could escalate to conventional and even nuclear levels. 

 

The possibility of such a war is further complicated by the China-Pakistan economic corridor and the contentious claims over Jammu and Kashmir by both India and Pakistan.

 

Highlighting the modernization of China's armed forces and its efforts to reduce dependence on sea routes for resource transportation, the U.S. The Department of Defense in 2023 pointed out China's increased focus on land-based transportation routes, which poses significant concerns for India. 

 

The report also discusses India's long standing reliance on Russia for military equipment, a dependency that could become a vulnerability in the event of a conflict with China, given Russia's economic ties with China.

 

Furthermore, the strained capacity of the US to support India militarily, due to its commitments in Ukraine and Israel, is noted as a significant concern. 

 

The evolving strategic relationship between India and the US is unlikely to culminate in a bilateral military security treaty within the predicted time frame, leaving both India and China facing the challenge of navigating from a stance of mutually assured destruction to one of mutually assured survival.