The Israeli Defense Forces have said they will persist with targeted strikes against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon despite the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, the Israeli media has reported.
The IDF maintains that continued operations are necessary to push for the group’s full disarmament, even at the risk of triggering another round of hostilities.
According to the IDF, Hezbollah’s military strength has been severely degraded, especially its ability to carry out large-scale rocket attacks on Israel. Before the war, the group was believed to hold an estimated 150,000 rockets and tens of thousands of launchers.
The Jerusalem Post, citing Israeli officials, reported that the number of launchers has now fallen to only a few thousand, with the overall rocket stockpile reduced by between 70 pc and 80 pc.
This drop in capacity means Hezbollah’s ability to fire volleys has plummeted from around 1,500 rockets at once to only dozens. “Hezbollah has also lost virtually all of its multiple rocket launching platforms,” IDF officials said.
The IDF further assessed that Hezbollah’s operational flexibility has been sharply reduced, with the group now relying on individual launchers that are more exposed and vulnerable.
While Hezbollah still holds some long-range precision rockets, the IDF says its capacity to launch them is constrained by Israel’s control over major launch zones, many of which have already been struck in recent operations.
Hezbollah’s traditional weapons smuggling route through Syria has also faced disruption. The Jerusalem Post reported that Syria’s new Sunni-led regime has been blocking much of Iran’s arms trafficking into Lebanon to curb Shiite influence, a move that has dealt a significant blow to Hezbollah’s logistics.
To monitor threats, the IDF has carried out up to five strikes on positions straddling the Syria-Lebanon border.
The IDF believes Hezbollah’s senior leadership is currently deterred but remains cautious of Iran’s continued financial backing, which is estimated at around USD 1 billion annually. In comparison, the West provides Lebanon with approximately USD 250 million in support.
Since the ceasefire, the IDF says it has conducted over 500 attacks on Hezbollah targets, which include the killing of 230 operatives, 90 rocket launcher strikes, 20 assaults on bases and outposts, 40 hits on weapons storage sites, and three special operations targeting the elite Radwan force’s training camps.
According to Israeli intelligence, an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed and around 9,000 permanently incapacitated, removing over half of the group’s standing force of 25,000 from the battlefield.
Hezbollah is said to have tens of thousands more reservists, but the IDF estimates that only about 10 pc remain active. The elite Radwan unit has shrunk from about 6,000 fighters to between 2,500 and 3,000, shifting its focus to internal security.
The IDF added that there is currently no threat of a major Hezbollah ground invasion, as the group has been pushed back from Israel’s northern border.
Although small-scale attacks remain possible, the scenario of “6,000 Radwan invaders striking Israel all over the north simultaneously is not and will not be a threat for some time to come,” the IDF said.
The IDF praised the role of the United States in managing ceasefire violations, saying the current system works better than previous UNIFIL efforts. The IDF has filed 1,263 reports of Hezbollah violations, of which 456 were handled internally and 666 passed to the Lebanese army.
The local media also reported that the Lebanese army resolved 82 pc of these cases effectively with US assistance.
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