This Saturday, Iran’s action resulted in the one thing that has been dreaded ever since the October 7 Hamas attack —- escalation of the conflict into a wider region. Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack also means that any ceasefire deal in Gaza, if at all, hangs in the balance. In much of the Middle East, Iran’s attack was as dreaded as expected.
This also marks the first time it has chosen to launch a direct military assault on Israel, a country with which its enmity dates back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles in the attack, although Israeli military claims that 99% of them were intercepted.
On Monday, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summoned his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours to weigh the pros and cons of a retaliatory response.
However, the government stepped short of making any announcements on the second day too.
That decision comes in the wake of heavy international pressure on Netanyahu not to further escalate the conflict. However, later in the evening, Israeli Defence Forces chief Lt. Gen Herzi Halevi warned that Iran's attack, which caused, “slight damage to the airbase,” “will be met with a response.” He also added that Israel was, “looking ahead, considering our steps.”
Retaliation, not the best response
However, retaliation or “a response” is not what the Middle East needs or world leaders have encouraged. Among those calling for restraint are French President Emanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Over a call on Tuesday with Benjamin Netanyahu, British PM Rishi Sunak reportedly said, “It was a moment for calm heads to prevail.” India, which enjoys good relations with both Israel and Iran, also said that it called, “for immediate de-escalation and exercise of restraint.”
Iran-Israel enmity
Iran’s attack on April 13 comes in retaliation to the April 1 strike on an Iranian consular building in the Syrian capital of Damascus that left two Iranian generals dead. The attack on Iran’s consular building, allegedly by Israel, comes against the backdrop of decades of enmity between the two nations, dating back to the Islamic Revolution of 1979. A day after Israel’s warning that there would be a response, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi said that any action undermining Tehran’s interests would be “further met with a painful response.”
Sanctions against Iran
Israel, reportedly, has also urged its allies for a sanction on Tehran's missile programme since the UN sanctions over the programme expired in October. The United States and the European Union say they are looking at imposing further sanctions on Iran, post-attack, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell saying the bloc is working on the details of the sanctions. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that G7 was also working on measures against Iran.
Where are we headed? What next?
For US President Joe Biden, the development is a tipping point of sorts in the already tightrope he was walking on the Israel-Gaza war while facing both domestic and international pressure over his relationship with Israel. In a major departure from US-Israel close ties, President Joe Biden, reportedly, told Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend that the US will not be a part of Israel’s counter-strike on Iran.
Meanwhile, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) director general Rafael Grossi said he was concerned about Israel possibly targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, which were closed for a day on Sunday over the sensitive situation.
In a departure from the official position of the UK and US condemning Iran for its actions, Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Tuesday, said that Israeli PM Netanyahu was to be blamed for Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel. Russian President Vladimir Putin, over a call with Iran’s President Raisi, called for restraint. In the meanwhile, the Kremlin has called the attack, “retaliatory measures taken by Iran.”
But what worries the Middle East and beyond is the possibility of the conflict widening further, taking within its ambit the entire region. Iran’s top diplomat in the UK Seyed Mehdi Hosseini Matin has said that Netanyahu is, “seeking to trap the West into a total war across the Middle East.” That marks the new set of tensions for the Middle East and any such possibility would have incalculable consequences for the region and the world.
Follow us
