In his recent speech to the United States Congress in July, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposed a refreshed and more closely knitted “Abraham Alliance” in the Middle East.
This new strategic alliance aims to expand the existing Abraham Accords by including countries with diplomatic relations with Israel to counter the growing influence of Iran and its proxies, such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas, collectively known as the Axis of Resistance.
Initiated by Israel in 2020, the Abraham Accords sought to normalise relations with Arab countries, including Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, and the UAE.
Efforts to include Saudi Arabia have stalled due to recent actions by Israel in Gaza. Netanyahu’s proposal comes amidst rising apprehensions among US lawmakers and widespread protests against Israel’s military conduct in Gaza.
In his speech, Netanyahu echoed the historic words of the UK Prime Minister, asking the US to provide the tools necessary for Israel to "finish the job," underscoring the importance of continued military aid. Following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the US assured full support to Israel in case of a war with Iran.
Security experts suggest that Netanyahu has long considered a conflict with Iran, despite lacking the capability to achieve decisive results.
The recent killing of Haniyeh has further destabilised the already volatile Middle East. The strategic interventions by the US in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen have largely failed, allowing Iran to gain more influence and acceptance in these regions.
For Netanyahu, Iran remains the last major obstacle in the Middle East. However, with backing from Russia and diplomatic support from China, a direct conflict with Iran could plunge Israel into an existential crisis.
A victory against Iran, whether through conventional or covert warfare, is a challenge the US is reluctant to support, especially given Iran’s military capabilities and the growing public resentment in the West against ongoing US support for Israel.
The robust network of proxies Iran has established in neighbouring countries, including Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Sudan, and Lebanon, further complicates the situation.
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has used these proxies, known as the Axis of Resistance, to extend its influence and challenge its adversaries across the region.
Hezbollah, established in the 1980s, is Iran's primary proxy, possessing a significant military arsenal. In Gaza, Iran supports Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad against Israel.
The Assad regime in Syria has received substantial Iranian military aid, while the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq have also been backed by Tehran, further extending its regional reach and influence.
In addition, Russia and China have shown growing interest in the Middle East. The re-entry of Russia, particularly its military presence in Syria, means any major military adventure led by Israel and backed by the US would have to contend with Russian armed forces.
China, on the other hand, sees an opportunity to rebuild infrastructure in countries affected by the Arab Spring.
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