Punjab province in Pakistan is bracing for a difficult Kharif (summer crops) sowing season due to a deepening water crisis in the Indus River system, which includes the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Islamabad has raised concerns over critically low water levels in its two major reservoirs—Tarbela on the Indus and Mangla on the Jhelum—while reporting a “sudden decrease” in Chenab River inflows, following reduced water supply from India in the aftermath of the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack.
According to fresh data released by the Pakistani government, the total water availability in the Indus River system across Punjab has fallen by 10.3 per cent, compared to the same date in 2024. The situation is expected to worsen further, with the onset of the Southwest Monsoon still at least four weeks away.
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA), which regulates water distribution within Pakistan’s river system, reported that Punjab province had access to only 128,800 cusecs of water on June 2,—down by 14,800 cusecs compared to the previous year.
This shortfall comes at a critical time, as the Kharif sowing season is underway. The delay in the Southwest Monsoon's arrival, coupled with extreme summer heat, is exacerbating irrigation woes across Punjab. The shortage is likely to have devastating consequences for farmers who depend on a steady water supply during this key agricultural period.
Last month, Pakistan projected a nationwide water shortage of 21 per cent for the summer and advised reservoir and irrigation authorities to manage supplies with caution. The government also forecast a 50 per cent shortfall in live storage levels in its two principal dams—Tarbela and Mangla—which are essential for irrigation in Punjab and Sindh, and vital for hydroelectric power generation.
The escalating water crisis prompted Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to voice concerns during a conference on glacier preservation held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, last week. He used the platform to draw international attention to India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—a move Islamabad considers critical to its current water woes.
India’s Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty
The growing water shortage is believed to be directly linked to India’s suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty following the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The attack, which took place on April 22 at the Baisaran meadow, claimed the lives of 25 Indian tourists and one Nepalese national, and left several others injured. Indian authorities attributed the attack to Pakistan-backed terror groups.
Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is allocated control over the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan receives the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). Although India is permitted to use a portion (up to 20%) of the water from the Western Rivers for domestic, agricultural, and limited hydropower purposes, it generally shares data on water flows to help Pakistan manage its own river systems, particularly during monsoons and flood-prone periods.
However, with the treaty now in abeyance, India has stopped providing water level data for the three key rivers. This development may significantly impair Pakistan’s ability to issue timely flood alerts, especially to vulnerable populations living in low-lying regions of Punjab and Sindh during the upcoming monsoon season. The absence of early warnings and declining water availability threatens to intensify Pakistan’s agricultural and humanitarian challenges just as the region enters one of its most demanding farming periods of the year.
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