Pakistan is witnessing a marked drop in river water flow across three of its key provinces, following India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in April. The disruption has pushed the water deficit to nearly 20 per cent as Islamabad anxiously awaits the monsoon season.
Official figures from Pakistan reveal a sharp decline in water flow across Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as of 20 June, compared with the same date last year.
In Punjab, water flow has dropped from 1,30,800 cusecs to 1,10,500 cusecs—an over 20 per cent reduction. Sindh has seen a fall from 1,70,000 cusecs to 1,33,000 cusecs, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recorded a slight decline from 2,900 to 2,600 cusecs.
Being a lower riparian state, Pakistan depends heavily on rivers such as the Jhelum and Chenab—both of which flow through India’s Jammu and Kashmir. The situation has raised alarm ahead of the crucial late Kharif crop season that runs from June to September.
India had put the IWT “in abeyance” on 23 April, following heightened diplomatic tensions. The suspension has added to Islamabad’s water woes, especially as New Delhi pushes forward with a strategic water-diversion plan that includes a 160-km tunnel linking the Indus and Chenab rivers with the Beas, to carry water deep into the Indian heartland up to Gangasagar.
In response to the developments, Pakistan has sent four letters requesting India to reconsider its decision. Islamabad has alleged that a “crisis had been created by Indian short supplies in Chenab River”, warning of an intensifying water shortage in the ongoing Kharif season.
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India, however, has maintained a firm stance. “Water and blood cannot flow together,” it has said, reaffirming the suspension of the IWT.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing a gathering in Gujarat on 27 May, spotlighted India’s claim over its rightful share of water. “Should they get their rightful share of water or not? And I haven’t done much yet. Right now, we have said that we have kept it (Indus Waters Treaty) in abeyance. They are terrified there, and we have started cleaning by opening the dam a little bit; we are removing the rubbish that was there,” the Prime Minister said.
The IWT, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, divides the waters of six rivers between the two nations—allocating the eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan. Though India has limited rights over the western rivers under the treaty, it is permitted to use them for specific non-consumptive purposes, including run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects.
Addressing young Indians in the same speech, Prime Minister Modi lambasted past governments for what he called a decades-long neglect of dam maintenance. “I want to tell the new generation how the country has been ruined. The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960. If you go into its details, you will be shocked. It has even been decided that the cleaning work of the dams built on other rivers of Jammu and Kashmir will not be done. Desilting will not be done. The gates downstream for cleaning will not be opened. These gates were not opened for 60 years, and the water that should have been filled with 100% water gradually reduced to 2-3%,” he said.
With the monsoon approaching, analysts say Islamabad’s ability to cope with the present shortage will be severely tested, especially if weather conditions turn erratic. Meanwhile, the geopolitical water war between India and Pakistan appears to be entering a more assertive phase.
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