Eleven days after a brutal terrorist strike in Pahalgam’s Baisaran Valley claimed the lives of 26 people, tensions between India and Pakistan continue to rise, with cross-border skirmishes intensifying and diplomatic ties steadily deteriorating.
Amid the heightened hostilities, Pakistan’s former National Security Adviser under Imran Khan’s administration, Moeed Yusuf, has said he does not believe a full-scale war with India is imminent.
“I do not believe that there is a likely possibility of military engagement with India,” Yusuf remarked in an interview with one of India’s senior-most journalists.
He added, “Chances of India attacking Pakistan appeared high in the initial days as media pressure was building up on the government to act over the Pahalgam attack”, but cautioned that Pakistan “needs to be ready for any possibility”.
India has directly accused Pakistan of involvement in the 22 April assault in the popular tourist destination, branding it a terrorist attack. Islamabad, however, has firmly rejected the charges, calling them a “false accusation campaign”.
Following the attack, both countries have initiated a series of retaliatory measures: the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the Shimla Agreement, expulsion of diplomats, the halting of all trade ties, closure of airspace, and cancellation of visas for tourists and residents. Border outposts along the Line of Control have reported renewed shelling, with the ceasefire, in place since 2021, appearing increasingly tenuous.
India has signalled that the ceasefire line itself is no longer binding due to Pakistan’s apparent disregard for the Shimla Agreement, effectively rendering the LOC established post-partition “null and void”.
As a result, the Jammu and Kashmir region has become increasingly volatile. Analysts believe that a limited military operation—targeting suspected terror camps within Pakistani territory—remains a possibility, but warn such action could trigger a wider conflict.
Diplomatic manoeuvring is simultaneously underway, with both sides lobbying international partners. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, urging both countries to exercise restraint and seek de-escalation.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also spoke to Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday, condemning the Pahalgam attack and assuring Washington’s “strong support” for India.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sharif has held meetings with envoys from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, seeking their diplomatic intervention to calm tensions.
Military exercises on both sides of the border have fuelled speculation that India may resort to limited precision strikes, as it did following the Pulwama attack in 2019. Experts caution that even a confind conflict could spiral into a wider war, destabilising the region.
Despite the uncertainty, voices like Yusuf’s reflect a hope that diplomacy can still prevail—if not in rebuilding relations, then at least in preventing a further descent into conflict.
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