Russian President Vladimir Putin has introduced significant changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons. This move comes in response to what Moscow perceives as escalating threats from the West, particularly after Ukraine reportedly used U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike deep within Russian territory.
The revised nuclear framework, approved by Putin, outlines conditions under which Russia could authorise a nuclear strike. Notably, it broadens the scope to include conventional attacks on Russia or its ally Belarus that pose a critical threat to their sovereignty or territorial integrity.
This marks a departure from the 2020 doctrine, which focused on nuclear retaliation or conventional attacks threatening the state’s existence.
Alexander Graef, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, highlighted the gravity of this shift. He noted that the new doctrine significantly lowers the barrier for a nuclear response, signalling a more aggressive stance by Moscow in its conflict with the West.
The United States National Security Council has stated there is no immediate reason to adjust its nuclear posture. However, the situation underscores the heightened risks, as Russia and the U.S. collectively hold 88% of the world’s nuclear arsenal.
The updated doctrine also introduces provisions that classify an attack by a non-nuclear power, supported by a nuclear-armed state, as a joint attack. Furthermore, aggression by one member of a military bloc would be interpreted as an act of the entire alliance, amplifying the implications of such actions.
This escalation coincides with Russia accusing Ukraine of launching missile strikes on its Bryansk region, allegedly facilitated by U.S. intelligence and weaponry.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov labelled these developments as a significant phase in the West’s involvement in the conflict, promising an appropriate response from Moscow.
Lavrov also reiterated Russia’s stance against nuclear war while reminding the world of the U.S.’s use of nuclear weapons during World War II.
The doctrine has also expanded its definition of mass attacks to include data from aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones, reflecting a more comprehensive approach to perceived threats.
These developments emerge as the conflict enters what officials describe as a potentially decisive phase, with intensified military actions on both sides.
Russian officials have drawn parallels between the current crisis and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, emphasising the unprecedented risks of direct confrontation between nuclear powers.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov cautioned that the world is navigating uncharted political and military territory.
The Kremlin insists that the updated doctrine serves as a deterrent, ensuring potential adversaries understand the inevitability of Russian retaliation in the face of aggression.
Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the publication of the doctrine was timely, given the evolving geopolitical landscape.
As the conflict marks its 1,000th day, the updated nuclear doctrine underscores the escalating stakes. Both Russia and the West are bracing for a phase that could redefine the trajectory of the war and global security dynamics.
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