Early trends suggest former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump has an edge over vice president Kamala Harris.
Trump, reportedly, has secured an initial lead with approximately 150 electoral votes.
However, political analysts warn that this early advantage may not reveal the ultimate outcome, as Democratic candidate Harris could still reverse the tide.
The phenomenon, often dubbed as “mirages” in elections, is set to play a central role in shaping public perceptions on election night, especially in battleground states where vote-counting quirks can paint misleading pictures.
In 2020, states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin exhibited what experts call a “red mirage”, showing Trump leading on election night before a “blue shift” occurred as mail-in ballots heavily favored by Democrats were tallied, ultimately pushing Joe Biden into the lead.
Trump’s team utilised this pattern to push claims of a stolen election, though the outcome was merely a consequence of the state’s voting laws and mail-in ballot trends.
This week, similar dynamics are expected, only to see a shift as in-person votes are counted in states like North Carolina and Georgia.
As ballots roll in, Trump’s campaign plans to declare him a winner if he crosses the 270 mark.
With a large portion of Democratic voters in populous urban areas, where vote processing tends to be slower, delayed counts could heavily influence final tallies in the days following Election Day.
Each battleground state has its own timeline and rules for processing votes, and these could impact the perceived winner on election night.
Pennsylvania, for instance, prohibits election officials from counting mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, potentially delaying results for days.
In Wisconsin, where votes are processed centrally in major cities, large early-morning dumps of absentee ballots may again tip the scales in Harris’s favour, just as they did for Biden in 2020.
Similarly, North Carolina, known for its extended vote canvassing, may keep Americans guessing for days as absentee and overseas ballots continue to be counted even after election night.
In states like Arizona, where voting by mail is highly popular, early results could show Harris in the lead due to early and mail-in ballots, though the numbers might edge towards Trump as in-person votes are added. This trend may reverse again once all mail ballots — including those dropped off on Election Day — are counted in subsequent days.
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