The United Nation's World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast a transition from the 2023/24 El Niño event, which has driven record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather globally, to La Niña conditions later this year.
The world recorded its warmest April ever, marking the eleventh consecutive month of unprecedented high temperatures.
Sea surface temperatures have remained at record highs for the past 13 months, according to WMO data.
This extreme weather pattern is attributed to the naturally occurring El Niño, which involves unusual warming of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with the additional energy trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities.
During the prevailing but weakening El Niño, millions in South Asia, including India and Pakistan, experienced severe heatwaves in April and May.
The latest forecasts from WMO's Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts indicate a 50% chance of either neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August.
The probability of La Niña conditions increases to 60% for July-September and 70% for August-November.
The likelihood of El Niño redeveloping during this period is negligible, the WMO stated.
El Niño is typically associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, whereas La Niña, its opposite, usually brings abundant rainfall during the monsoon.
Last month, the India Meteorological Department predicted above-normal rainfall for the monsoon season in India, anticipating favourable La Niña conditions by August-September.
The monsoon season is crucial for India's agriculture, with 52% of the net cultivated area depending on it.
It also plays a vital role in replenishing reservoirs, which are essential for drinking water and power generation across the country.
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