The United States and the World Bank are expected to intervene discreetly to preserve the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following the deadly terror strike in Pahalgam, which left 26 dead and over 20 injured.
The 1960 agreement, brokered after nearly a decade of bilateral talks with World Bank support, divided the waters of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan. Under its terms, India controls the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — while Pakistan holds rights to the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — which together account for nearly 80 per cent of the basin’s flow.
While the treaty does not contain a provision for unilateral termination, it may be modified only through mutual consent. Given its international backing, especially by the World Bank, observers believe that external players may now move to prevent a breakdown in the agreement.
“What is more interesting is that one country cannot revoke or suspend this treaty because of the World Bank mediation, as it does not have a clause of termination; however, the agreement can be modified only through mutual agreement,” an expert explained.
Joshua White, a former senior advisor to the White House on South Asian affairs, noted: “The Trump administration is likely inclined to give India rather wide latitude in retaliating against Pakistan.”
Although India has signalled a tougher posture, especially after recent provocations, experts contend that the situation remains politically charged but operationally constrained, given India’s limited infrastructure to fully halt water flows to Pakistan.
“This was taken by some in the Biden administration and the World Bank as a credible threat, but ultimately India decided that it wasn’t practical or beneficial to abrogate the agreement, though it did begin to take more assertive actions to maximise its rights under the treaty,” White added.
He further said, “India may, however, be willing to assume more risk after this recent attack than it did in 2016 — suspending not only data-sharing but also taking steps that could ultimately diminish water flows to Pakistan.”
Syed Mehr Ali Shah, Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner, termed New Delhi’s approach “political”, stating that Pakistan would not face an immediate impact. “But I suspect that both the US government and the World Bank will work quietly to prevent a complete rupture of the treaty,” another observer said.
Pakistan’s infrastructure shortcomings, the mountainous terrain, and India’s current lack of large-scale water diversion projects on the western rivers all limit New Delhi’s capacity to exert pressure in the short term.
A World Bank report from June 2023 pointed to existing differences between the two nations over India’s Kishenganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) hydroelectric projects. The former was completed in 2018, while the latter remains under construction.
Although tempers have flared in the wake of the Pahalgam bloodshed, experts say any meaningful reworking of the IWT is improbable without sustained multilateral diplomacy and technical adjustments.
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