The ousting of Bashar al-Assad by Islamist rebels in Syria is expected to have far-reaching consequences, not just for the Arab Republic, but also for the Middle East and its relationships with countries like India.
For New Delhi, the fall of Assad is likely to impact both its political stance and strategic interests in the region.
India and Syria have enjoyed strong ties for decades, underpinned by historical, cultural, and civilisational bonds.
During Assad's tenure, India supported Syria on several global fronts, including the Palestinian cause and Syria's claim over the Golan Heights. In return, Syria consistently backed India’s position on Kashmir, acknowledging it as an internal matter.
India also refrained from backing sanctions against Syria at the United Nations and called for the relaxation of sanctions during the Covid pandemic, emphasising humanitarian concerns.
Despite the civil war that erupted in 2011, India maintained its diplomatic relations with Syria, advocating for a peaceful, inclusive, Syrian-led political solution to the conflict.
At the height of the civil war, when Syria was ostracised internationally, India remained steadfast, continuing to maintain its embassy in Damascus.
India's commercial investments, including a USD 240 million line of credit for a power plant, as well as contributions to Syria’s infrastructure and key sectors like oil, IT, and steel, further solidified its ties with the country.
Renewed relations under Modi govt
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, India reaffirmed its relations with Syria after the country rejoined the Arab League in 2023.
In July 2023, India’s Minister of State for External Affairs, V Muraleedharan, undertook a significant ministerial visit to Damascus. This was a pivotal moment for bilateral ties, following years of isolation and turmoil in the region.
The fallout of Assad’s ouster
The uncertainty following Assad's fall raises several concerns for India’s political and economic interests in the region.
A key threat is the potential rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group previously linked to Al-Qaeda, or the possible resurgence of ISIS, both of which could destabilise Syria and the wider region.
India has substantial investments in Syria, particularly in the oil sector. ONGC, in partnership with IPR International, signed a deal for oil and gas exploration in Syria back in 2004.
India also holds a joint stake with China’s CNPC in a Canadian firm operating in Syria.
India’s commercial engagement with Syria includes a USD 240 million Line of Credit for the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant project, along with investments in IT infrastructure and the fertiliser sector.
India is also eyeing significant investments aimed at establishing an India-Gulf-Suez Canal-Mediterranean/Levant-Europe corridor, which involves Syria.
Experts believe India’s close engagement with Damascus provided New Delhi with opportunities to leverage its relations with other Middle Eastern states.
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