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In Vatican circles, there's a saying that if you "enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal." This reflects the sacred and secretive nature of the papal election process, which is viewed not as a popularity contest but as the divinely inspired decision made by the church's princes, the cardinals, to choose Christ's Vicar on Earth. 

Despite this divine process, there are always frontrunners, known as "papabile," who are seen as having the necessary qualities to become pope, as depicted in the 2023 Oscar-nominated film Conclave.

Since any baptised Catholic male is technically eligible for the papacy, in practice, only cardinals have been selected since 1378. The electing cardinals must be under 80 years of age, and the winning candidate requires at least two-thirds of the vote. 

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Pope Francis, who passed away recently, appointed most of the electors during his papacy, often selecting individuals who shared his pastoral priorities. This is expected to ensure continuity rather than a major shift in the direction of the Church.

Looking back, it’s worth noting that Jorge Mario Bergoglio, later known as Pope Francis, was considered too old to be elected pope in 2013 at age 76, and similarly, Karol Wojtyla (Pope John Paul II) was not seen as a frontrunner ahead of the 1978 conclave. Here are some of the potential candidates who could emerge as the next pope:

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Cardinal Peter Erdo

At 72, Cardinal Peter Erdo, the Archbishop of Budapest and Primate of Hungary, has earned respect from European cardinals, who form the largest bloc of electors. Erdo, who served as the head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences and helped organise important Vatican meetings on family matters, also developed strong relationships with African cardinals during his tenure.

Cardinal Reinhard Marx

Cardinal Marx, 71, Archbishop of Munich and Freising, was a key advisor to Pope Francis and played a significant role in Vatican financial reforms. Though a proponent of the "synodal path" in Germany, which sparked controversy over issues like celibacy and women’s ordination, Marx is viewed with skepticism by conservative factions. He made headlines in 2021 when he offered to resign as Archbishop of Munich due to the church’s handling of abuse cases, but Pope Francis rejected his resignation.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet

At 80, Cardinal Ouellet, originally from Canada, held a significant position as the head of the Vatican’s bishops' office for over a decade, playing a key role in selecting bishops worldwide. Although he is more conservative than Pope Francis, Ouellet maintained the Pope’s emphasis on pastoral care. He also led investigations into bishops accused of covering up for predator priests, a role that could provide him with sensitive information.

 

Also Read: Pope Francis & India: Saints, Cardinal, unfulfilled visit

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Cardinal Parolin, 70, has been Pope Francis’ Secretary of State since 2014 and is considered one of the leading candidates for the papacy. As the Vatican’s veteran diplomat, he played a crucial role in the controversial deal with China regarding the nomination of bishops. Parolin’s role in the London real estate scandal could work against him, but his diplomatic experience makes him a formidable contender.

Cardinal Robert Prevost

An American cardinal, Prevost, 69, could potentially become the first US-born pope. With extensive experience in Peru, including as Archbishop of Chiclayo, and currently serving as the Prefect of the Vatican’s dicastery for bishops, he is highly regarded for his pastoral work in Latin America. However, his youth compared to other candidates might make cardinals hesitant to elect him for a long papacy.

Cardinal Robert Sarah

At 79, Cardinal Sarah of Guinea has been a strong advocate for doctrinal conservatism, particularly regarding celibacy. A former head of the Vatican’s liturgy office, Sarah’s views often clashed with Pope Francis, particularly during the debate over married priests in the Amazon. While Sarah enjoys strong support among conservatives, his relationship with the Pope could hinder his papal chances.

Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn

Cardinal Schoenborn, 80, Archbishop of Vienna, has long been viewed as a theological conservative but also supported some of Pope Francis' most controversial moves, such as the outreach to divorced and remarried Catholics. Schoenborn’s involvement in Church reforms, particularly in liturgy and doctrine, makes him a notable figure in the papal race, though his age might be a limiting factor.

Cardinal Luis Tagle

Cardinal Tagle, 67, Archbishop of Manila, is seen as one of Pope Francis’ potential successors due to his pastoral experience and connection to the global Church, particularly in Asia. He has significant experience in both Vatican and missionary work and is popular among many for his personal humility. However, his relative youth could be a disadvantage if cardinals seek a candidate with a more limited papacy.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Cardinal Zuppi, 69, Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, has close ties to Pope Francis and is known for his outreach to marginalized communities. He played a key role in interfaith dialogue and peace negotiations, particularly in Mozambique. Zuppi’s progressive views, combined with his close relationship with Francis, could make him a strong contender, though his age might again raise concerns about the length of his papacy.

As the world watches closely, the next conclave is likely to be shaped by the legacy of Pope Francis, who has had a significant influence on the Church’s direction. While there is no clear frontrunner, each of these cardinals brings their own strengths and challenges to the table, ensuring that the upcoming papal election will be an intriguing and historic event.

 

Also Read: Pope Francis passes away after battle with pneumonia