'Earth’s oxygen will deplete in approximately one billion years', yes you read it right. This is the finding of a supercomputer simulation conducted by researchers at Toho University, using NASA planetary modelling.
The study, published in Nature Geoscience under the title "The Future Lifespan of Earth's Oxygenated Atmosphere," suggests that as the Sun ages, its' increasing heat and brightness will trigger catastrophic environmental changes, halting oxygen production and suffocating complex life forms, including humans.
The research, which ran 400,000 simulations, details how the ageing Sun will raise Earth’s surface temperatures, causing water to evaporate and disrupting the carbon cycle. This will lead to the death of plants, which are essential for oxygen production, and the atmosphere will revert to a methane-heavy state similar to early Earth before the Great Oxidation Event.
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Kazumi Ozaki, the lead researcher, noted, "For many years, the lifespan of Earth's biosphere has been discussed based on scientific knowledge about the steady brightening of the Sun and global carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle."
"One of the corollaries of such a theoretical framework is a continuous decline in atmospheric CO2 levels and global warming on geological timescales. It's generally thought Earth's biosphere will come to an end in 2 billion years due to the combination of overheating and CO2 scarcity for photosynthesis. If true, one can expect atmospheric O2 levels will also eventually decrease in the distant future. However, it remains unclear exactly when and how this will occur."
Earlier estimations suggested that Earth’s biosphere would no longer exists in two billion years before overheating and CO2 scarcity ended life, but this study halves that timeline, highlighting a rapid deoxygenation process.
While microbial life might persist in anaerobic conditions, the loss of oxygen will make survival impossible for most species.
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