As the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections are set to be announced on November 23, political parties in the state are bracing for a critical 72-hour window to form a government and avoid the imposition of President’s Rule.
With the current Assembly’s term expiring on November 26, time is running out for the parties to finalise an agreement and stake a claim to form a government.
If the political parties fail to do so within the given time frame, Maharashtra may once again find itself under direct rule from the Union government, as prescribed under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution.
This race against time is further complicated by the possibility of a hung Assembly, as predicted by several exit polls. While some surveys favour the ruling Mahayuti alliance, which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies, other polls suggest that neither the Mahayuti nor the opposition alliance, the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), will secure a clear majority.
In such a scenario, the clock is ticking, and the political negotiations between the parties will be crucial in determining the next steps.
The current Assembly is composed of 288 seats, and any party or alliance aiming to form the government needs a majority of at least 145 seats. However, as the exit polls suggest, the outcome may not be so clear-cut.
Some of the major exit polls, including those from C-Voter, P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, and Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra, predict that neither the Mahayuti nor the MVA will be able to secure a decisive majority. The polls indicate that Mahayuti could win 112 seats, while MVA might bag 104 seats, with the remaining 61 seats still uncertain.
If this scenario of a hung Assembly comes to pass, it could result in intense bargaining and negotiations to cobble together a coalition. These processes are often time-consuming and could take days, if not weeks.
In such a situation, the inability of political parties to form a stable government within the 72-hour period could lead to a situation where President’s Rule is imposed in Maharashtra.
President’s Rule occurs when the state government is unable to function in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution. This would mean that Maharashtra would be governed directly by the Union government through the Governor.
The most immediate hurdle that any alliance faces in forming a government is the choice of Chief Minister. Even if an alliance crosses the 145-seat mark or secures external support, the issue of who will occupy the Chief Minister’s chair could cause delays.
Within the MVA, the race for the CM’s post has been heating up with several contenders vying for the role. Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena leader, remains a strong contender, but his chances are being challenged by others within his alliance.
On the other hand, in the Mahayuti, Eknath Shinde, the current Chief Minister, faces stiff competition from Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.
While Shinde has gained popularity, especially for his initiatives such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana, Fadnavis has gained significant ground with his appeal to consolidate Hindu votes, evidenced by his slogan “Batenge toh Katenge” (If they talk, they will be cut off). This power struggle for the CM post could add more complexity to the already tense political situation.
The spectre of President’s Rule has loomed over Maharashtra in the past as well. After the 2019 elections, the state saw a brief period of President’s Rule for 11 days due to a lack of agreement between the BJP and Shiv Sena, which had pre-poll ties but failed to agree on the CM face.
The situation was resolved only after an 80-hour stint of Devendra Fadnavis as CM, before he resigned. This led to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), a coalition government comprising Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress.
Before 2019, Maharashtra had witnessed President’s Rule on two occasions. The first time was in 1980, and later in 2014, when the state was under President’s Rule for a month.
If a similar situation arises in the current election, it would mark the fourth time Maharashtra experiences this form of governance.
While the constitution provides a framework for the formation of a new government, it also allows for intervention in the form of President’s Rule if the state is unable to form a government or maintain law and order.
Under Article 356, if the President determines that the state government cannot function according to the Constitution, it can take over the administration of the state.
The political parties in Maharashtra must act quickly to avert this eventuality, as the imposition of President’s Rule would mean that the state’s governance would be under the direct control of the Union government, which could have far-reaching implications for the state’s political future.
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