China has approved the construction of a colossal hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, close to the Indian border, raising concerns in India and Bangladesh.
The project, estimated to cost a staggering USD 137 billion, is set to be the largest infrastructure endeavour globally, dwarfing even China’s Three Gorges Dam.
According to Chinese news agency Xinhua, the dam will be situated in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, known as the Brahmaputra in India. This location is strategically significant, as the river takes a sharp U-turn before entering Arunachal Pradesh.
A report in the South China Morning Post indicated that the investment could exceed one trillion yuan, underscoring the project's unprecedented scale.
China has already operationalised the Zam Hydropower Station, the largest in Tibet, in 2015, but the new dam, part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), is projected to generate over 300 billion kWh of electricity annually.
Strategic concerns for India
Indian experts have expressed apprehension about the dam's potential to control water flow and its implications for national security. The size and scale of the dam could enable China to release significant water volumes, causing floods in Indian border areas during hostilities.
India is concurrently constructing its own dam on the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh. Both nations have discussed trans-border river management under the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM), established in 2006.
Talks during the December 18 meeting between Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also addressed data sharing.
Geological and environmental challenges
The Himalayan region, where the dam is to be built, is prone to seismic activity. The Tibetan plateau, frequently affected by earthquakes, presents significant engineering and ecological challenges.
An official statement sought to assuage concerns, asserting that the project prioritises ecological protection. "Through extensive geological explorations and technical advancements, a solid foundation has been laid for the science-based, secure, and high-quality development of the project," the statement read.
Yan Zhiyong, former chairman of the Power Construction Corporation of China, described the area as “one of the most hydropower-rich regions in the world.”
The location features a 2,000-metre vertical drop over a 50km stretch, providing resources surpassing those of three Three Gorges Dams combined.
Yan emphasised the dam's significance for energy, national security, and international cooperation. "It is a project for national security, including water resources and domestic security," he said.
Chinese authorities maintain that the dam aligns with the country’s carbon neutrality goals. The project is expected to complement solar and wind energy initiatives, creating a clean energy base in Tibet.
Officials anticipate the development of allied industries, including logistics and engineering, alongside the creation of new jobs.
Chinese assurances
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, responding to concerns, assured that "China has always been responsible for the development of cross-border rivers."
Mao reiterated that extensive studies had been conducted to ensure ecological and structural safety, adding, "The project will not affect lower reaches."
Mao emphasised that China would maintain communication with downstream nations to promote disaster prevention and relief efforts. However, riparian states remain apprehensive about the potential environmental and geopolitical ramifications of this unprecedented undertaking.
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