India is facing a disturbing reversal in the fight against chronic diseases, with the likelihood of dying from conditions such as cancer, diabetes and heart disease rising over the past decade, even as most countries recorded improvements, according to a new global study published in The Lancet.
The analysis, led by researchers from Imperial College London in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO), revealed that women in India have borne a sharper rise in risk than men. “Deaths from most causes of chronic disease increased (in India), with heart disease and diabetes contributing heavily,” the researchers observed.
Drawing from data across 185 countries and territories, the study examined the probability of dying from a non-communicable disease (NCD) between birth and age 80. The results showed that from 2010 to 2019, this risk fell for women in 82 per cent of countries and for men in 79 per cent, but rose for both sexes in India and Papua New Guinea.
For many large nations outside the West, the picture was less bleak. “Among the largest countries (regions other than high-income western countries), non-communicable diseases mortality declined for both sexes in China, Egypt, Nigeria, Russia, and Brazil, and increased for both sexes in India and Papua New Guinea,” the study noted.
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Globally, reductions in deaths from cancer and cardiovascular illnesses – particularly strokes and heart attacks – were credited with the steepest declines. However, these gains were offset by increases in dementia, alcohol-related disorders, and pancreatic and liver cancers, underscoring the complexity of chronic health challenges.
The researchers emphasised that India’s surge in mortality from NCDs places it at odds with global trends and raises questions about preparedness and preventive healthcare. The findings come as the world prepares for the Fourth High-Level Meeting of the UN General Assembly on 25 September, where heads of state will renew their commitment to tackling chronic diseases, strengthening mental health and pursuing the UN Sustainable Development Goal of reducing premature deaths from NCDs by a third by 2030.
Calling the study the first of its kind to track chronic disease mortality trends at a national level, the authors underscored the urgency of investment. “The study's findings show an urgent need for a greater investment in tackling chronic diseases and in ensuring approaches effectively reach people most in need,” they cautioned.
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