Climate models have suggested that the longest droughts before the turn of the century might be 10 days longer than previously expected. This could mean that potential risks to societies and ecosystems could be more severe than anticipated, according to a study.
A team of researchers from Ghent University in Belgium noted that while climate models forecast an increase in dry extremes in various parts of the world, uncertainties in these projections make it challenging to implement adaptation strategies.
To conduct their study, the researchers analysed drought projections from a variety of climate models to identify potential biases. They then refined these projections using historical data on the longest dry spells each year between 1998 and 2018.
The authors of the study estimated that, on average, the longest droughts in a year predicted by the refined models would be 42-44% longer compared to those predicted by non-refined models, under both moderate- and high-emissions scenarios.
According to the study published in the journal Nature, the researchers concluded that by the end of this century, the global mean land-only longest annual dry spell could be 10 days longer than currently anticipated.
Additionally, the researchers found that the increase in the longest dry spell predicted by the refined models in North America and southern Africa and Madagascar is roughly twice as large as that predicted by the non-refined models.
Furthermore, they noted that the decrease predicted by the refined models in Central-East Asia could be almost three times higher than those predicted by non-refined models.
The results suggested a higher risk of more frequent rainfall and flooding in some regions, the authors explained.
They said the findings stressed the need for a re-evaluation of drought risks around the world.
The results also highlighted the importance of correcting existing biases in climate models to increase confidence in their projections, they added.
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