The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for July, raising concerns about potential floods in the western Himalayan states and central river basins.
Conversely, northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall this month, mitigating flood risks in the region.
Speaking at a virtual press conference, IMD Director Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that the anticipated rainfall for July is likely to exceed 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 28.04 cm across the country.
"We anticipate normal to above-normal rainfall over most parts of India, except for northeastern regions and certain areas of northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India," Mohapatra noted.
He pointed out the heightened likelihood of heavy rainfall in specific areas, particularly highlighting Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and the foothills of the western Himalayas.
These regions are susceptible to severe weather events such as cloudbursts, landslides, and flooding due to their topography and the origin of numerous rivers.
"In central India, including the Godavari and Mahanadi river basins, we also expect above-normal rainfall, which increases the potential for flooding," Mohapatra added.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), based in Nepal, has reiterated concerns over the monsoon season in the Hindukush Himalayan region, affecting countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan.
"Despite below-average rainfall last year, catastrophic floods devastated many mountainous areas of the Hindukush Himalaya," remarked Mandira Shrestha, programme coordinator for climate services at ICIMOD.
She expressed apprehension over this year's monsoon outlook amidst a warming trend that accelerates snowmelt, glacier retreat, and destabilizes mountain slopes.
"This forecast serves as a crucial alert for international donors, multilateral agencies, and disaster management officials. Early warning systems must urgently be reinforced in this densely populated region facing escalating risks," Shrestha stressed.
In July 2023, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand witnessed devastating floods, followed by flooding in the Teesta river in the eastern Himalayas during October.
Mohapatra also highlighted the below-normal rainfall recorded in June this year, which saw an 11 percent deficit, the highest in five years. Data from IMD indicates a historical trend where below-normal June rainfall often precedes normal to above-normal July rainfall.
"June's subdued rainfall was attributed to a delayed onset of monsoon over northern and eastern India, exacerbated by unfavorable weather systems," Mohapatra explained.
The absence of typical weather phenomena like the Madden-Julian Oscillation and active western disturbances further prolonged dry spells and heatwaves in northwest and central India.
The IMD's climate analysis revealed that maximum temperatures in July are likely to remain normal to below normal across most of northwest India and peninsular India, except for the west coast. Conversely, central, east, and northeast India, along with the west coast, may experience above-normal maximum temperatures.
Regarding minimum temperatures, Mohapatra indicated they are expected to be above normal in many parts of India, excluding certain areas of northwest and central India, as well as pockets of southeastern peninsular India.
The IMD anticipates cloudy conditions to contribute to higher minimum temperatures during the monsoon season.
Northwest India recorded its warmest June since 1901, with a mean temperature of 31.73 degrees Celsius, surpassing the long-term average.
Maximum temperatures averaged 38.02 degrees Celsius, nearly 2 degrees Celsius above normal, while minimum temperatures settled at 25.44 degrees Celsius, 1.35 degrees Celsius above normal.
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