india-s-elephant-count-drop-by-20-in-latest-census

India’s much-anticipated elephant census report, Status of Elephant in India 2022-23, has faced significant delays due to incomplete data from the country’s northeastern region.

 

Initially set for release in February, the report has been held back by the scarcity of primary data, with the Ministry of Environment waiting to finalise estimates for the Northeast before making the report public.

 

Despite these setbacks, the data for the rest of the country paints a concerning picture, with elephant numbers dropping by 20% since the previous census in 2017.

 

Particularly alarming is the decline in the Central Indian and Eastern Ghats regions, where a staggering 41% reduction has been recorded.

Delays due to incomplete data from NE

The report’s release was initially delayed due to “extremely limited” data from the Northeastern states.

 

As a result, the figures for the region were extrapolated from the previous census, conducted in 2017, when the Northeast accounted for 10,139 elephants—a third of the country’s total population of 29,964 elephants.

 

"Since there was no deadline in sight for the Northeast and because we were already late for the five-year cycle, it was decided to publish the report for the rest of India and later add a volume for the Northeast.

 

But there was a change of plan at the last minute. Formally, we have been told to wait for the Northeast data,” a wildlife scientist involved in the project said.

 

The Ministry of Environment has confirmed that the final version of the report, including data from the Northeast, is expected to be completed by June 2025.

Alarming decline in central and eastern regions

The unreleased report reveals a troubling 20% drop in India’s elephant population, with some regions facing even more dramatic declines.

 

The Central Indian and Eastern Ghats regions have seen the most significant reductions, with an overall 41% decrease in elephant numbers compared to 2017 estimates.

 

States like West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Orissa have experienced substantial losses, with elephant populations dropping by 84%, 68%, and 54%, respectively.

 

These figures account for the loss of nearly 1,700 elephants in the region, though some elephants are thought to have migrated to neighbouring states such as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh.

 

The Western Ghats, home to one of India’s largest elephant populations, has also seen a worrying decline. The elephant population in Kerala has decreased by 51%, with around 2,900 elephants lost since 2017.

 

Across the Western Ghats landscape, the total drop could be as high as 18%.

 

The only region where the elephant population appears relatively stable is the Shivalik hills and the Gangetic plains in the north, which saw a marginal 2% decline.

Development projects threaten elephants

The report highlights the “mushrooming” of developmental projects—particularly unregulated mining and the construction of linear infrastructure—as major threats to the country’s elephant population.

 

These activities fragment habitats, disrupt traditional elephant corridors, and fuel human-elephant conflict.

 

The east-central landscape has been particularly hard hit by mining and infrastructure expansion, with elephants increasingly venturing into historical ranges that are now unoccupied.

 

This shift has led to rising incidents of conflict between elephants and local communities, particularly in areas where human activity has intensified.

 

Poaching, railway collisions, and electrocution from power lines also remain serious threats to elephants across these regions.

Shift to scientific methodology

For the first time, the Status of Elephant in India 2022-23 report employs a “scientific” methodology to estimate the country’s elephant population, moving away from traditional counting methods.

 

The Wildlife Institute of India (WII), which conducts the census every five years, is using advanced statistical modelling techniques similar to those employed in tiger and leopard surveys.

 

“Until 2017, we relied on either direct (head) counts or indirect (dung) counts of elephants. This time, we are attempting statistical modelling based on mark-recapture, as we have already done for tigers and leopards, to get reliable baseline data for elephants. So the gap in numbers doesn’t necessarily mean we lost that many elephants in just four to five years. It’s a reality check that elephants have not been doing well for quite some time,” a senior researcher said.

 

However, the delay in obtaining data from the Northeast has led to frustrations within the scientific community. A senior elephant researcher called the Ministry’s reluctance to release the report “illogical,” arguing that the data for the rest of India should be made public, even if the Northeast figures are still pending.

 

The Ministry of Environment has acknowledged the delay but has stressed that this is an “ongoing exercise,” with progress being reviewed regularly. The final report will incorporate newer methods, including DNA profiling and camera traps, to ensure more accurate estimates, especially in the Northeastern region.

Habitat fragmentation a growing concern

The report draws attention to the increasing fragmentation of elephant habitats across India. In the Western Ghats, which once supported a contiguous population stretching from southern Maharashtra to Kerala, changing land use has severely disrupted elephant movements.

 

Expanding commercial plantations, farmland fencing, human encroachment, and infrastructure projects have contributed to this fragmentation, isolating elephant populations and increasing the risk of conflict.

 

Even in relatively stable regions like Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, elephants face threats from encroachments, forest clearing, and invasive species. The intensification of agriculture and the construction of linear infrastructure pose additional risks to these populations.

 

In the Northeast, elephants are scattered across a landscape dominated by human habitations, tea plantations, mines, and oil refineries, making their movements precarious. Poaching for ivory remains a major threat in the region.

Call for conservation action

The report calls for immediate action to safeguard India’s elephants, urging that future conservation strategies focus on strengthening corridors, restoring habitats, and mitigating the impact of developmental projects.

 

It also emphasises the importance of involving local communities in conservation efforts to ensure their support for long-term solutions.

 

One of the key challenges identified is the need to protect elephants outside designated wildlife reserves.

 

While areas like Kaziranga and Manas in Assam, Nagarhole and Bandipur in Karnataka, and Corbett in Uttarakhand provide safe havens for elephants, the species’ long-ranging nature makes it difficult to sustain them in isolated pockets.

 

“A few islands of safety like Kaziranga and Manas in Assam, or Nagarhole and Bandipur in Karnataka, cannot sustain a species that roam long distances,” a wildlife scientist in Assam said.

 

The elephant census report highlights the need for comprehensive and scientifically-driven conservation efforts to protect India’s elephants. 

 

As the country grapples with rapid development, balancing economic progress with wildlife conservation will be critical to ensuring the survival of its iconic elephant population.

 

With the final report, including data from the Northeast, expected in June 2025, conservationists hope that a more accurate picture of the challenges facing elephants will emerge, guiding future strategies to safeguard this majestic species.