The latest United Nations World Population Prospects (WPP) report reveals India’s population has reached 1.451 billion, positioning it to become the world's most populous country and forecasted to double China’s population by 2085.
The biennial report, released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division, underscores significant demographic shifts globally, with profound implications for economic and social policies.
According to the WPP, while India currently leads with a population of 1.451 billion, it will be followed by Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the United States in the population rankings by 2100.
The U.S., currently at 345 million, is expected to grow primarily due to immigration, rather than natural increase, to reach 421 million.
Population projections
India’s population is projected to continue growing, peaking at 1.701 billion by 2061 before a gradual decline.
This marginal upward revision in India’s population figures, compared to previous estimates, is attributed to the absence of a decadal census since 2011.
The 2021 census has been indefinitely postponed, initially due to the pandemic and subsequently for undisclosed reasons.
Despite fears of overpopulation, the WPP report dismisses concerns of a population explosion in India. Instead, it highlights India’s steady demographic transition.
The country’s median age is currently 28.4 years, expected to rise to 47.8 years by 2100, compared to China’s median age of 39.6 years and the U.S.’s 38.3 years.
One of India’s critical challenges is leveraging its demographic dividend, which is expected to peak by 2049 with a working-age population of 1.027 billion.
This window of opportunity, driven by a declining fertility rate—already below the replacement level of 2.1 since 2020—is essential for economic growth. The fertility rate stood at 1.962 in 2024, indicating future population growth will stem from past momentum rather than high fertility rates.
The WPP report points out the importance of investing in education, health, infrastructure, and job creation to capitalise on this demographic advantage.
“In about 100 countries or areas, the working-age population will grow through 2054, offering a window of opportunity known as the demographic dividend,” the report states.
The WPP’s global population forecast has been slightly revised upward from 8.1 billion to 8.2 billion for 2024.
The world’s population is now expected to peak at 10.29 billion in 2084, rather than 10.43 billion in 2086 as previously estimated.
By 2100, the global population is projected to be 10.2 billion, down from the earlier forecast of 10.3 billion.
This earlier peak in global population is attributed to lower-than-expected fertility rates in major countries, particularly China, which, along with 62 other countries, has already reached its population peak.
In contrast, population growth in 126 countries, including India, is expected to continue beyond 2054 or even 2100.
Drivers of population growth
Different factors drive population growth or decline across countries. The global fertility rate in 2024 is 2.25 births per woman, with more than half of all countries falling below the replacement level.
In some nations, fertility rates are so low that populations are shrinking, a phenomenon exacerbated by the decreasing effectiveness of policies aimed at raising fertility rates.
By the late 2030s, in countries with already peaked populations, a significant portion of women will be too old to have children, diminishing the impact of pro-natalist policies.
In 62 countries, immigration will be a significant driver of population growth through 2100, already influencing population peaks in many of them.
Life expectancy and mortality
Life expectancy, which was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in nearly all countries.
Global life expectancy at birth decreased from 72.6 years in 2019 to 70.9 years in 2020 and 2021, but has improved to 73.3 years in 2024.
This is projected to rise to 77.4 years by 2054. Despite this improvement, falling fertility rates will continue to drive population decline in the coming decades.
Another outcome of rising life expectancy is the increase in deaths among the elderly. By 2054, more than half of global deaths are projected to occur at age 80 or higher, compared to just 17% in 1995.
The number of deaths among children under five has fallen below 5 million for the first time since at least 1950.
However, high levels of child mortality persist in many regions, particularly in countries with growing populations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan.
These deaths are largely preventable, highlighting the need for continued investment in healthcare and social services.
The WPP report urges countries to implement reforms to harness their demographic dividend, focusing on education, health, infrastructure, and job creation.
Additionally, it calls for a new industrial policy in the West to strengthen defense capabilities and economic resilience, particularly in light of the demographic shifts and geopolitical challenges.
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