Pakistan’s decision to shut its airspace to for airlines in India, in reaction to New Delhi’s diplomatic censure following the Pahalgam terror attack, appears poised to dent Islamabad’s aviation revenues rather than significantly disrupt India’s airline industry.
While the move was ostensibly aimed at inconveniencing Indian air traffic, experts believe that Pakistan may in fact have inflicted economic harm upon itself. With Indian carriers now compelled to circumvent Pakistani skies, the lucrative overflight fees traditionally accrued from aircraft traversing its airspace are set to vanish.
Aviation experts note that India’s extensive westbound traffic — particularly towards Europe and North America — is predominantly served by Indian carriers such as Air India and IndiGo. The closure thus affects a substantial chunk of Pakistan’s overflight earnings.
Though some online commentators have suggested that Pakistan could still derive revenue from foreign airlines, industry insiders contend otherwise.
Aviation experts clarified, “Most westbound flights from India are operated by Indian airlines like Air India and IndiGo. Therefore, Pakistan stands to lose a major part of its overflight income.”
While Indian airlines brace for longer flying hours and increased fuel expenditure owing to the diversions, Pakistan’s civil aviation authority may bear the brunt of the economic fallout.
This is not an unprecedented scenario. In July 2019, Pakistan had adopted a similar measure in the wake of the Pulwama terror attack.
A Hindustan Times report from the time revealed that Pakistan had lost close to $100 million during that airspace shutdown. Approximately 400 daily flights were impacted, culminating in significant financial losses for both the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and the national carrier, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).
According to aviation data cited then, a Boeing 737 flying over Pakistan would typically incur around $580 in overflight fees, with larger aircraft attracting even steeper charges. Officials had pegged the daily loss from overflight fees alone at approximately $232,000. Including associated expenses such as landing and parking, the total daily shortfall climbed to around $300,000.
PIA, too, incurred daily losses nearing $460,000 due to the suspension of international routes and extended flying hours on domestic routes, pushing the combined daily loss for the CAA and PIA to about $760,000. By the time the airspace reopened, total losses had nearly touched the $100 million mark.
Analysts now fear that Pakistan could be on course for a similar economic setback following its latest airspace ban in response to the Pahalgam attack.
Air India and IndiGo have already confirmed that some of their long-haul international flights have been affected. Routes originating from northern cities such as Delhi, Amritsar, Jaipur, Lucknow, and Varanasi are now forced to avoid Pakistani airspace and instead chart extended courses over the Arabian Sea.
A senior pilot remarked that “Flights to the United States and Europe will take about 2 to 2.5 hours longer because of the new routes. This means higher fuel costs, longer crew hours, and overall delays.”
A senior airline executive added, “Flights from cities like Delhi, Amritsar, Jaipur, Lucknow, and Varanasi are directly impacted.”
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