The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to transfer a record surplus to the Centre for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25), with estimates suggesting the payout could exceed ₹2.5 lakh crore.
Economists and analysts believe this figure may significantly surpass last year’s dividend of ₹2.1 lakh crore, providing a substantial boost to the government’s finances.
According to economic experts, the central bank’s large-scale sale of US dollars to stabilise the rupee and interest earnings from its liquidity management operations have positioned it for a bumper surplus.
Some analysts believe the total dividend could reach as high as ₹3.5 lakh crore, which would far outstrip the government’s budgeted dividend estimate of ₹2.2 lakh crore for FY26.
The central bank is likely to announce the final figure for its surplus transfer to the government by late May. The expected dividend windfall is likely to ease fiscal pressure on the Centre, particularly at a time when tax collections have seen a slowdown.
Economists also believe the additional funds will support the government’s capital expenditure plans and reduce the need for increased borrowing in a year expected to be driven by state-led growth.
Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said the higher dividend could assist the government in managing the fiscal deficit.
“This dividend gives the government room to correct the fiscal gap, especially with tax collections under pressure. Moreover, the resulting liquidity will benefit the bond market, particularly for shorter-tenure bonds,” she told The Economic Times.
Emkay Global expects the RBI dividend to be in the range of ₹2.8–3 lakh crore, which would make it the highest ever transfer from the central bank to the government. The surplus transfer last year already marked a substantial jump and took market watchers by surprise, doubling expectations.
Analysts also point to the RBI’s increased intervention in the foreign exchange market.
Dhiraj Nim, economist and FX strategist at ANZ Banking Group, noted that the RBI’s significant dollar sales to protect the rupee, coupled with liquidity measures extended to banks, have enhanced its interest earnings. “As a result, the FY25 dividend is likely to be very large,” Nim said, estimating a transfer in the ₹2.5–3.5 lakh crore range.
The potential windfall could help the Centre manage its fiscal consolidation roadmap more comfortably. It would also pump liquidity into the banking system, supporting credit growth and reducing borrowing costs, particularly for shorter-term government securities.
The RBI’s role as the government’s debt manager makes this surplus transfer a critical financial tool, especially during years of macroeconomic uncertainty.
With final calculations underway, all eyes are now on the RBI’s May announcement, which could have far-reaching implications for fiscal management, market liquidity, and the broader economic landscape.
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