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External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar emphasised the need for a modern, efficient model to address the global demand for a skilled workforce, highlighting the constraints imposed by national demographics. 

Speaking at the event ‘At the Heart of Development: Aid, Trade, and Technology,’ hosted by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York, Jaishankar’s remarks came against the backdrop of trade and tariff tensions, as well as US President Donald Trump’s stringent immigration policies, including a new USD 100,000 fee on H-1B visas, which significantly impacts Indian professionals who constitute the majority of H-1B visa recipients.

Jaishankar underscored the inevitability of a global workforce, stating, “Where that global workforce is to be housed and located may be a matter of a political debate. But there’s no getting away. If you look at demand and you look at demographics, demands cannot be met in many countries purely out of national demographics.” 

 

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He stressed the urgency of addressing this reality, adding, “This is a reality. You cannot run away from this reality. So how do we create a more acceptable, contemporary, efficient model of a global workforce, which is then located in a distributed, global workplace? I think this is a very big question today which the international economy has to address.”

 

He highlighted the evolving dynamics of global trade, noting, “We will see, as part of this re-engineered world, new, more different trade arrangements between countries, countries which will make decisions which they may not have made in other circumstances, countries which today will feel the desire, sometimes even the compulsion, to have new partners and new regions.” 

 

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Despite challenges, Jaishankar expressed optimism about trade’s resilience, stating, “For all the imponderables and uncertainties, eventually trade does find a way.” He attributed this to improved infrastructure and digital advancements, saying, “It is easier to trade today” due to better roads, shipping, and smoother trade interfaces than ever before. He added, “So for all the obstacles and complications that may arise, I also think they will be countered in some ways or mitigated in some ways by what will happen in the great domain.”

Jaishankar envisioned a transformed global landscape, stating, “Technology-wise, trade-wise, connectivity-wise, and workplace-wise, we are going to end up in a very different world in a very short term.” In the current “very turbulent” atmosphere, he stressed the importance of large nations like India building self-reliant capacities. 

He cited India’s Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) as a model, noting, “There are many other societies who find the Indian model of DPI frankly far more absorbable, relevant, transposable than a European model or an American model of how to run a more digital life.” He emphasised that multipolarity requires building national capacities, adding, “When you build national capacities and have national experiences, some of it is transposable to other people who may relate to it.”

 

Reflecting on global unpredictability, Jaishankar remarked, “A year ago, and certainly a few months ago, it was very clear that the world was moving towards much greater unpredictability, volatility, and uncertainty.” He elaborated, “When you predict something like that, people say, okay, so you predict what that means. Now, by the very definition of unpredictability, you don’t know what you’re heading towards. It’s not an extrapolation of what has been there in the past. Clearly, it’s disruptive.”

 

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In an apparent reference to Trump’s second term, marked by aggressive tariff policies, he noted, “People felt that somebody’s second and first terms would be different,” adding, “But what we are seeing is - terms are different. Times are different. A few months make a difference. A few weeks make a difference.”

Jaishankar highlighted the public nature of these changes, stating, “So actually it’s really quite the experience for the world to go through this level of policy changes, of practical impact of that, and also the fact that so much of it is done so publicly, it’s played out in the full glare of the spotlight.” He also addressed the global economic challenges, noting that over the past three to four years, concerns have shifted from supply chains and production sources to market access. 

 

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“But now we also have to protect ourselves against the uncertainty of market access. So you worry about over-dependence on markets just as you worry about over-dependence on supplies or over-dependence on connectivity,” he said, adding, “In a sense, almost the entire economic chain has become far more riskier or far more difficult to assume in many ways.”

He concluded by framing the central challenge for global diplomacy: “Today, the central proposition in diplomacy is probably how do you de-risk, how do you hedge, how do you become more resilient, how do you safeguard yourself against unforeseen contingencies, which again I emphasise by definition are unforeseen, and really build policy and plans around that. That’s a very big challenge for the entire world.” 

Jaishankar’s remarks underscored India’s proactive approach to navigating a volatile global landscape through self-reliance, innovative trade partnerships, and adaptable workforce strategies.

 

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