The relationship between two of Asia’s biggest powers have never been easy, nor it has ever been truly broken. Both India and China have existed in a strange state of limbo. After years of mistrust, border skirmishes and diplomatic cold shoulders, signs of slow but deliberate thaw are emerging.
With External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s recent visit to Beijing for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) foreign minister’s council meeting, the first such interaction since the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, the diplomatic signals are clear: dialogue is back on the table.
Add to this, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart in Qingdao where he laid out his four-point proposal to resolve border crisis: disengagement, de-escalation, delimitation and dialogue also highlights India’s intent to lower the temperature.
The question is whether China is equally committed and whether both nations can move beyond crisis management toward a sustainable, more functional relationship.
While decades of mistrust and unresolved disputes remain, the current global posture is shifting fast and not in a direction either side can afford to ignore. At the heart of this recalibration is a shared strategic vulnerability: growing pressure from the United States. Washington has recently warned of tariffs and secondary sanctions on countries continuing close economic ties with Russia. This is not a veiled threat, it is a direct signal to nations like India and China, who together now account for more than 80 per cent of the sea-borne crude oil exported by Russia.
Neither Delhi nor Beijing wants to be seen as isolated from the West, nor do they want to sacrifice their long-standing energy partnerships. If both nations want to preserve their strategic autonomy, they must de-risk confrontation and begin to engage seriously, not just ceremonially.
On the other hand, the issue of Tibet and Taiwan continues to be an unspoken landmine. The Dalai Lama’s presence in India remains a point of anxiety for Beijing as well. It has repeatedly sought reaffirmation of India’s commitment to the ‘one China policy’.
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The issue also represents a deeper ideological discomfort that colours this relationship - India’s democratic ethos versus China’s authoritarian assertiveness.
Economically, the relationship looks robust on paper but deeply lop-sided. India’s trade deficit with China is over $99.2 billion, and market access remains a sore point. Restrictions over rare earth magnets for EVs to India, wind turbines, electronics, and high-value fertilisers have raised fresh concerns.
Despite these issues, in a sign of soft diplomacy, there has been resumption of the Kailash Mansarover Yatra after a five-year suspension, the possibility of direct flights to be resumed, visa processes being relaxed, and Beijing opening up to Indian journalists. These are not just symbolic niceties; they signal that both sides are exploring an incremental reset.
Geopolitically, both countries remain wary of each other. China sees India’s deepening ties with the Quad as part of a containment strategy. India views with caution Beijing’s strategic alignment with Pakistan and Bangladesh, which has been formalised through new groupings like the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral cooperation forum. It is clear that both neighbours are arming, aligning and posturing and both understand that this is not just about bilateral mistrust, but regional dominance.
At the same time, India has voiced unease over China’s political signalling, particularly its continued closeness to Pakistan.
Yet, it would be unfair to suggest that consensus remains impossible. In fact, one of the biggest shifts in 2024 has come at the multilateral level and it deserves more attention. The recent BRICS Summit in Kazan saw, for the first time, a joint declaration that explicitly condemned the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, rejected safe havens for terror groups, and called out “double standards” in counter-terrorism.
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After the 2008 Mumbai attacks, BRICS leaders failed to even mention the incident, a silence that rankled in India. It was only in 2017 that BRICS joint declaration finally named Pakistan-based groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. This, therefore shows that both India and China can find common ground at least if not directly, but within a multi-lateral framework.
India and China relations may never be smooth. Historical baggage, competing ambitions and mutual suspicion are unlikely to vanish overnight. However, diplomacy doesn’t require harmony, it requires commitment to process, respect for red lines and a space for compromise.
In a world which is already so fractured by great-power competition and protectionism, Asia’s two largest economies cannot afford to stumble into another confrontation. If they fail to manage their differences, the consequences will not remain confined to the Himalayas but ripple across Asia and beyond.
A fully functional relationship between India and China is no longer a diplomatic luxury, instead it is a geopolitical imperative.
By Shyna Gupta
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