akali-bjp-alliance-in-punjab-is-a-strong-possibility

Punjab president of the Bharatiya Janata Party Sunil Jakhar recently suggested that an alliance between his party and the Shiromani Akali Dal was important for communal harmony in Punjab. Jakhar, a former Congressman who spent most of his political innings in the Congress before joining the BJP, is deemed a seasoned politician who does not make off-the-cuff remarks. That is why his suggestion has led to debate across the political spectrum. Not just the BJP and the Akalis, but even the Congress and the ruling Aam Aadmi Party leaders have reacted to his suggestion.

 

Another senior BJP leader, former veteran Congressman and two-time Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh had earlier favoured an alliance with the Akalis.

 

Jakhar has reflected the same thing that late veteran Akali leader and five-time Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal would often say that the Akali-BJP alliance was more of a social than a political alliance. This was for the obvious reason that an overwhelming majority of the Akali supporters belong to the Sikh community and an overwhelming majority of the BJP supporters belong to the Hindu community. The Akali-BJP alliance was considered as a Sikh-Hindu alliance. It had been formalised in its second avatar in the aftermath of over a decade of terrorism in Punjab.

 

Although the Akali Dal and the BJP had been old allies, during the militancy era, the two parties had not stayed together. The two parties came together in late 1998 after the General Elections when Badal announced unilateral support to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even after having contested the General Elections in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. The alliance worked well and won three elections in 1997, 2007 and 2012 together.

 

However, in 2017, the alliance fared quite badly as both the parties, the Akali Dal in particular, lost much of its base primarily due to the way the alliance government handled the sacrilege issue and their aftermath. By 2022, the two parties had parted ways because of their differences on three Central farm laws. Although the Central government eventually withdrew the three laws, the two parties still did not come together.

 

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In the last General Elections held in 2024, the BJP fared much better although it could not win any of the 13 Parliamentary seats in Punjab. It polled over 18 per cent votes and led from 23 assembly segments across the state. While the Aali Dal could manage to win the Bathinda Parliamentary constituency, it led only from 9 assembly segments polling about 13 per cent votes.

 

Had the two parties contested together they may have won besides Bathinda, which the Akalis won, Patiala, Ferozepur, Ludhiana, Amritsar, Gurdaspur, and would have been quite close in Ropar and Hoshiarpur. Between the two of them, they led in 32 assembly segments, the AAP also led from 32 and the Congress led from 38 segments.

 

The situation in Punjab is not what it was 15 years ago. While the BJP has consolidated its hold among the urban Hindu voters, the Akali Dal has lost most of its base in the countryside, which used to be its stronghold. Besides the Hindu-Sikh combination, it was also a rural-urban combination that helped the alliance to win maximum seats.

 

With the Aam Aadmi Party having assumed the central position now, the next contest in 2027 is going to be multi-cornered. Besides the AAP, there are two radical leaders Amritpal Singh, who was elected MP from Tarn Taran and Sabrjit Singh, who was elected MP from Faridkot. Both contested independently. While Amritpal has emerged as the face of radical Sikhs, sidelining veterans like Simranjit Singh Mann, Sarabjeet Singh is the son of Beant Singh, one of the assassins of Indira Gandhi.

 

The Shiromani Akali Dal is faced with a strong rebellion. Sukhbir Singh Badal’s authority as the party president has eroded considerably. A significant chunk of leadership has rebelled against him forming the Sudhar Lehar (Reform Movement), which is emerging as a strong challenger and an alternative to the traditional Akali Dal and its leadership, particularly Sukhbir Badal.

 

Also read: Endgame near for India’s family-controlled political dynasties

 

The Akali Dal is faced with a complex situation. For the BJP it will not be an easy choice to make as with whom to align, whether the main party headed by Sukhbir or the rebels, who have gained considerable ground. There is a perception among the Akali circles that in case Sukhbir makes way for someone else as the party president, the Akali Dal may regain most of its voter base.

 

If the 2024 General Election results are to go by, the 2027 Punjab assembly election results look likely to be quite fragmented. There do not seem to be any clear winners as of now. Not much has changed in the state since the General Elections.

 

It is for sure going to be a multi-cornered contest even if the Akalis and the BJP fight these elections together. There will be the Congress, the AAP and the radical groups, who do have strong pockets of influence, thus indicating a strong possibility of a hung house.

 

The Punjab assembly elections are about a year-and-a-half away. That is a long time in politics. As of now the BJP does not have much focus on Punjab as it has to fight crucial Bihar elections this year and more crucial West Bengal elections next year.

 

Also read: Kejriwal in Rajya Sabha? Not a bad idea after all

 

The party will turn towards Punjab only next year. But it has already started sending feelers. Jakhar may have made a random statement as he has always favoured an alliance between the two separated partners, but there is substance in it. His statement has found resonance amongst the BJP and the Akali cadres across the state. Biggest plus point for the two parties is that their cadres coordinate well with each other. There is a strong supportive feeling for an alliance among the Akali cadres who are convinced that the Akali revival is not possible without the BJP’s support. That is why an alliance looks like a strong possibility. It may be just a matter of time before it is formalised.