an-unpredictable-trump-puts-at-stake-indo-us-relations

That US President Donald Trump is quite unpredictable has now been reaffirmed beyond any doubt. The way he has treated Ukraine and Israel should hardly leave any doubts in anybody’s minds that he just does not care about diplomacy and is only concerned about trade and business deals.

 

India, which till the recent past, even after Trump imposed tariffs on Indian imports, considered him to be a friend, is learning to its grave shock and utter dismay that a friend does not act the way Trump does. He has proved too unpredictable to be dependable.

 

The way he has been recklessly making statements and references about India without having any regard for diplomatic sensitivities that, too, with a friendly country, has come as a grave shock not only to people in India, but to many in the United States as well.

 

His frequent references to India-Pakistan hostilities and their cessation, trying to rake up Kashmir and hyphenate India and Pakistan have certainly not gone well with the people in India, who were his great supporters. 

 

Indo-US diplomatic relationship had been carefully crafted and cultivated over the last three decades. The two biggest democracies were thought to be natural partners and they had come very close to each other.

 

Irrespective of whether it was a Democrat or a Republican in the White House, the US President always held India in highest diplomatic esteem. Even Trump, during his first tenure was thought to be “very close” to India and would often describe Prime Minister Narendra Modi as his friend.

 

He probably still “says” so. Modi indeed has been a great friend of Trump, going out of way and hosting him in Ahmedabad stadium to a record presence, ahead of his 2020 Presidential elections.  There is a huge Indian diaspora living in the United States, which mostly voted for Trump. This was unprecedented for an Indian Prime Minister to take sides during the US Presidential elections. Trump lost that time. The Biden administration continued to maintain a balanced approach towards India, which in hindsight now, feels a lot better than what is happening now under the Trump presidency.

 

While Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Indian imports was understandable to some extent as these had been imposed on all countries, even like a close and friendly neighbour as Canada, his stance during the Indo-Pak conflict following the terror attack in Pahalgam, which left 26 people dead, has been quite disappointing.

 

Also read: Tactical wins, constant challenges mark India’s Maoist offensive
 

Trump has been frequently mentioning Kashmir, which he seems to believe to be the only reason for conflict between India and Pakistan, which he erroneously says, has been prevailing for over “one thousand years”. Pakistan came into existence just 77 years ago.

 

After the hostilities between India and Pakistan ceased, Trump took everyone by surprise, by announcing the “ceasefire”. While Pakistan did not have any problem with his announcement, as it had reportedly sought immediate cessation of hostilities and asked for his help, for India it was not acceptable that a third country will announce what transpired and what was decided between the two countries.

 

Trump’s reason for the hostilities is also grossly misplaced. The current hostilities arose after Pakistan refused to take action against the culprits responsible for the Pahalgam terror attack. The attackers were trained in Pakistan. Trump did not even mention the terror attack, but instead made reference to Kashmir as the reason for the hostilities.

 

Given Trump’s stated position on terrorism till now, the government of India and a vast majority of Indians believed that his administration will understand and appreciate India’s concerns and repeated threats it was facing. But that did not happen. Instead, what happened is that Trump has brought the two countries at a par, which is widely described in diplomatic parlance as “hyphenated” India and Pakistan together.

 

While there was a lot of jubilation and anticipation when Trump won the Presidential election, the expectations rose further after he nominated Marco Rubio as the Secretary of State. Rubio is considered a great friend of India.

 

In 2024 he introduced a “pro-India” legislation, ‘United States-India Defense Cooperation Act of 2024’, which is considered as a long term US visionary document on its foreign policy towards India. The Act emphasizes the need for building up India as an important ally to tackle regional threats, particularly those emerging from China. The act looked forward to improving India-US defense ties in view of growing regional threats. Rubio had suggested treating India like a “NATO ally”.

 

IN the bill, Rubio had placed strong emphasis on backing India’s sovereignty by enhanced security to counter “terrorism” and regional threats. And for this, he suggested expediting defence sales to India.

 

What else would India have asked for than someone so strongly in favour of building up and strengthening defence ties, among other things, with India, to become the US Secretary of State.

 

While Trump remains unpredictable, as he gets unraveled day by day, his interests are beyond diplomacy and defense, there is still a silver lining, as long as Rubio remains the Secretary of State. Trump does not have a very good record of retaining people and more so those holding important positions.

 

The government of India, the Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar in particular, has a treacherous diplomatic path ahead to navigate and negotiate. His real test begins now with an unpredictable President and an unpredictable deadline. The sailing, as of now, may be a bit smooth with Rubio around, which remains a small consolation as eventually it depends more on Trump than on Rubio.