The Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party are these days engaged in a fierce battle against each other in the Delhi assembly elections. Interestingly both were partners in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) during the 2024 General Elections.
Except Punjab, the two parties fought the parliamentary elections together in Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh. The AAP could not benefit from the alliance as it could win no seat in any of these places. All its three parliamentary seats came from Punjab, where it contested independently.
On Tuesday, the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi went all out against the AAP convener and former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, accusing him of being corrupt. He also alleged that Kejriwal trembles with fear at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s name.
Not to be cowed down, Kejriwal, in his characteristic manner, hit back in the same measure, referring to the National Herald case pending against the Gandhis and ahe corruption charges against Rahul’s brother-in-law Robert Vadra, asking how they were going scot-free.
For two consecutive elections, in 2015 and 2020, the Congress drew a blank in the Delhi assembly elections despite having been continuously in power for 15 years before that. Moreover, the Congress government headed by Sheila Dikshit is credited with changing the face of Delhi by building massive infrastructure, such as flyovers and metro trains, and curbing pollution in the national capital.
Interestingly, in the 2019 General Elections, when the BJP won all seven parliamentary constituencies in Delhi, the Congress came second in five seats, while the AAP remained in third place. The party still could not capitalise on and consolidate its voter base in the assembly elections, which were held just a few months later. It could not win a single assembly seat.
This was apparently due to the faulty strategy of the Congress to “keep the BJP away”, no matter at what cost. The Congress leadership appeared to take consolation that the BJP was losing no matter who was winning. In the process, in the 2020 assembly elections, the Congress again drew a blank in Delhi.
In the 2024 General Elections, the Congress had an alliance with the AAP as part of the INDIA arrangement. Despite an alliance, the two parties could not make any dent in the BJP’s parliamentary stronghold, which again won all seven seats for the third consecutive time.
However, given the past experience of 2014 and 2019, there is no guarantee that the parliamentary success will extend to the assembly elections as well.
In the 2015 assembly elections, the BJP could win just three of the 70 assembly seats in the elections, which were held just a few months after the General Elections, which saw Modi becoming the Prime Minister after the BJP got 282 seats of its own. This happened again in the 2020 assembly elections when the BJP won all seven Delhi parliamentary seats and 303 seats in total.
The BJP this time won seven of the seventy seats in the assembly elections.
Circumstances and situations on the ground have changed. The AAP has been in power in Delhi for 11 years.
Anti-incumbency is natural to crop up. Besides, there have been allegations against the AAP leaders, four of whom were put behind bars and are currently on bail. Their reputation has been dented. Besides, how the BJP and the Congress blew up the issue of renovation of the Chief Minister’s residence has also dented the AAP’s claims before coming to power that their leaders will live like commoners.
Congress seems to be smelling an opportunity in all this. The majority of the AAP supporters have come from the Congress and not the BJP.
AAP could only defeat the BJP because it had the complete support of the minorities and the Scheduled Castes, which were traditionally the hardcore supporters of the Congress. If these sections get disillusioned with the AAP they will obviously go back to the Congress and not the BJP.
Congress is precisely focusing on these sections. Whether the Congress will be able to make any substantial and impressive gains in case it gets back its traditional voters, is difficult to say at this stage. But one thing is sure, it will cause massive damage to the AAP.
That is the reason the AAP is more worried about the Congress than the BJP. Because the AAP understands that the voters it fears may desert it will not go to the BJP, but to the Congress.
There is also a perception among the minority Muslim voters that the AAP has been vague and ambiguous on issues like the Uniform Civil Code and Citizenship Amendment Act, while it unambiguously supported the abrogation of Article 370.
Earlier this section of the voters thought they had no option but to vote for AAP to get the BJP defeated. Now they seem to be seeing an option in the Congress also.
In the previous two elections, Congress preferred to play a low-key role in the elections and did not have any problems with the AAP winning as long as the BJP got defeated even when it meant losing its cadres.
The Congress finally seems to have realized that its main political rivals are the parties like the AAP, which are taking away its votes. If the party allows these parties to poach on its support base, it can never hope to revive and redeem its position.
This is the reason that the Congress has unleashed its top leadership on Delhi, led by the party president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi.
Despite knowing that the party does not have much at stake in Delhi this time, it has been trying to give its best. Besides the senior leaders, almost the entire leadership from Punjab, have converged on Delhi against the AAP.
The Congress will likely spoil the AAP applecart, which will eventually benefit the BJP. But the Congress appears to have shuffled its enemy this time from the BJP to the AAP. Or at least, it has realised that both are the same, as both are its rivals. If it is to survive and strengthen itself, it will have to fight against both, no matter who wins.
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