In a striking echo of events in Canada, Australia has seen a dramatic political upset this week.
At the start of the week, Canada’s Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat. By the end of the week, Australia’s Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has suffered the same fate. He has lost his seat of Dickson in Queensland.
Just months ago, the Coalition had seemed on track to challenge Labor. Some even thought they could win or at least come close. But their campaign has collapsed. Instead of a tight result or a minority government, Labor has increased its majority. The swing towards Labor was stronger than expected.
This wasn’t just about voters thinking the Coalition was unready to govern. It went deeper than that. People simply didn’t rate them. The Coalition’s message didn’t cut through. Voters didn’t like what they were offering.
Many factors led to this result
First, history favours first-term governments. They usually get a second chance.
Second, the shadow of Donald Trump hung over the election. Voters were uneasy. They chose to stick with the government. Dutton didn’t help his case. Many saw him as too close in style to Trump, despite his denials.
After the last election, many had said Dutton was unelectable. That view has now been confirmed. For a time, poor polling for Labor made it seem Dutton had a shot. That proved false.
Even with a strong campaign, the Coalition would have struggled. But their campaign was poor. Their nuclear energy policy was confusing and a distraction. They waited too long to release key plans. When they finally came, they lacked substance. The defence policy had no clear plan. The gas reservation scheme had no proper modelling.
There were more missteps. The Coalition had to reverse its stance on working from home. It rushed out a tax offset late in the campaign. Both moves looked desperate.
Dutton holds most of the blame. He kept decisions on tactics and strategy to himself.
His frontbench didn’t help. Most performed badly. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor and finance spokeswoman Jane Hume were weak. They were outclassed by Labor’s Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher.
Labor ran a tight and disciplined campaign. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did much better than he had in 2022. He stayed on message. His leadership looked stronger this time.
Labor also benefited from an interest rate cut in February. Another cut may come later this month. That helped ease pressure on households.
Cost of living was a key issue. Labor pointed to support they had given— on energy bills, tax relief and more. The Coalition had opposed many of those measures. They looked like they were scrambling to catch up.
Now the Liberal Party faces a tough road ahead. Its “target the suburbs” plan has failed. At the same time, it has lost its grip on wealthy inner-city seats. These are now strongholds for the teal independents.
Jane Hume made a colourful comment on Friday. “You do not read the entrails until you have gutted the chicken,” she said. Well, the chicken has now been well and truly gutted. This loss is worse than in 2022. The internal fallout will be intense.
Leadership options are limited. Angus Taylor? Andrew Hastie? Sussan Ley? None offer a clear way forward.
One question lingers. What if Josh Frydenberg had stayed in politics? Could he have led the party to a better result? We’ll never know. But Frydenberg was wise not to recontest Kooyong. Teal MP Monique Ryan has held the seat.
So who would even want to lead the Liberals?
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