Phase 5 of Lok Sabha polls concluded on Monday where 6 states went to the polls, along with two Union Territories. Amongst all, West Bengal recorded the highest voting percentage, that is, 74.7 per cent. But, this is less in comparison to the figures of 2019.
In previous general elections, during the fifth phase, the eastern state of Bengal had registered a voter turnout of 80.1 per cent. This leaves room for speculation based on voter turnout vis-à-vis voting behaviour of electorates in India.
If Phase 5 turnout in Bengal is to be considered in relation to 2019 Lok Sabha Polls in the same phase, then the voter turnout appears to be negative. Needless to say that the state has, thus, experienced a dip in the voter percentage.
A popular belief that has percolated from generation to generation is that a positive voter turnout is not favourable for the incumbent government. However, this notion hardly seems sustainable during the present times.
Although it is too early to offer a definitive explanation for the decline, there are a handful of factors which need to be taken into consideration. Notably, among all, one of the foremost reasons include voters are already aware of the outcome. After all, none feels excited about a contest whose results look far from in doubt.
Lok Sabha elections of 2019, opened gates for a political party in West Bengal whose existence was almost banal in the state’s political landscape before. The Bharatiya Janata Party finished second by securing 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
On a deeper level, West Bengal’s political history based on general elections goes by the idea that positive turnout is directly proportional to anti-incumbency.
In 2009, when the state was ruled by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Trinamool Congress sent more parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha than the ruling CPI(M)— the former won 19 seats and the latter was restricted to just nine out of 42 constituencies. The voter turnout was recorded at 81.5 per cent which was more than 2004 that stood at 77.7 per cent. Hence, the time-tested formula proves to be true in this case and it was an anti-incumbency wave.
Hence, from 2009, the TMC started to show up at the politics of the Centre.
The state recorded a voter turnout of 82 per cent in 2014 — which is the same as that of 2009 — in 2014, too, and the TMC, which was by then the ruling party of the state, secured the first position by securing 34 seats and CPI(M) was reduced to just two.
During 2019, the BJP saw a growing prominence in the state. And, notably, there was a drop in the voter turnout that year. From 82 per cent in 2009 and 2014, the figures stood at 78.6 per cent.
And the notion of negative voter turnout giving way to pro-incumbency got proved, yet again with TMC's victory in 2019 but with a tough competition at hand.
Although the TMC gained ground by securing 22 seats, the BJP stood second by securing a votes percentage of 40.6. Thus, a non-existential party in the state — the BJP — was making ground for an anti-incumbency wave in Bengal.
It is the fifth phase of 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the turnout in Bengal shows a downward shift vis-à-vis 2019 polling percentage of 82.7.
The dip of 2.5 per cent is also the least in the first four phases in the state. In the first phase, the dip was 2.8 per cent; in the second phase 3.9 per cent and in the third phase, it was 4 per cent.
Although West Bengal is being eulogised for registering highest voter turnout, it lacks when compared to its own previous records.
Voting pattern of the state supports the popular belief of more voter turnout being directly proportional to anti-incumbency. But, at the state level, the voter turnout has seen a dip. So will the TMC be able to sweep the Lok Sabha polls in the state?
Moreover, the ruling TMC’s image is marred by the reported cases of corruption, party’s internal rift and the popular election issue of Sandeshkhali.
So, voting pattern, data and electoral issues are making it all the more difficult to predict the fate of the state, albeit West Bengal, unequivocally, is setting an example for other states in exercising one’s franchise.
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