For years, the Shiromani Akali Dal-Badal (SAD-B) guarded its base among the Jat Sikh community, wary of its alliance partner, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), encroaching upon its vote bank.
Yet, in a remarkable turn of events, the BJP has fully supplanted SAD-B in the upcoming by-elections on November 13, fielding Jat Sikh candidates in all three general seats, while SAD-B has opted out entirely.
Three out of four BJP candidates standing in these by-elections have roots in SAD-B, including Manpreet Singh Badal, contesting from Gidderbaha, who originally hails from an Akali background.
Formerly in the Congress, he is also the cousin of SAD-B chief Sukhbir Singh Badal.
Similarly, Sohan Singh Thandal, contesting from Chabbewal, is a former Akali minister who joined the BJP shortly after attending an SAD-B core committee meeting.
Ravi Karan Kahlon, contesting from Dera Baba Nanak, comes from a ‘taksali’ (traditional) Akali family; his father, Nirmal Singh Kahlon, was a prominent Akali leader and former Punjab Assembly Speaker.
SAD-B has long harboured fears of the BJP encroaching on its Jat Sikh base. Historically, the BJP refrained from targeting this demographic, focusing instead on urban, Hindu-majority constituencies.
Of Punjab’s 119 assembly segments, the BJP typically contested only 23, leaving the rest for SAD-B. This arrangement was often characterised as a social alliance between Sikh and Hindu communities rather than a purely political one.
When the BJP nominated Navjot Singh Sidhu from Amritsar in 2004, the move initially drew little resistance.
However, SAD-B’s unease grew as Sidhu gained prominence as a Jat Sikh face within the BJP. SAD-B ultimately proposed Delhi-based Arun Jaitley, a Punjabi by background, as the BJP candidate for Amritsar in 2014.
Jaitley lost to Capt Amarinder Singh by a significant margin, despite a strong BJP wave nationally. Sidhu, feeling sidelined, did not campaign for Jaitley and later left the BJP for the Congress, after a brief flirtation with the Aam Aadmi Party.
Although SAD-B succeeded in distancing Sidhu from the BJP, the saffron party has nevertheless made inroads into SAD-B's Jat Sikh stronghold. Prominent leaders like Capt Amarinder Singh and Manpreet Singh Badal have since joined the BJP, further eroding SAD-B’s influence.
While SAD-B and BJP were once “natural” allies, the dynamics began to shift with generational changes within both parties.
This eventually led to a split in 2020 amid the farmers’ protests against the controversial farm laws. The breakup severely impacted SAD-B, which won only three seats in the 2022 assembly elections, while the BJP secured two.
Following the defection of one SAD-B MLA to the Aam Aadmi Party, SAD-B’s presence in the assembly weakened further.
SAD-B’s worst electoral setback came in the 2024 General Elections, when it dropped to fourth place in terms of vote share and constituencies led, trailing the BJP, which captured 18 percent of the vote and led in 23 assembly segments.
In contrast, SAD-B’s vote share slipped to 13 percent, with the party leading in only nine segments. While SAD-B retained the Bathinda parliamentary seat, the BJP won no seats despite a stronger overall vote share.
With the BJP replacing SAD-B in three of the four seats up for by-elections, SAD-B now faces the real possibility of being relegated to fourth place in the Punjab Legislative Assembly.
This would be a severe setback for a party that traditionally championed Punjab and Sikh interests.
Some SAD-B leaders argued for reuniting with the BJP in 2024, hoping it would bolster the party’s diminishing influence.
However, a faction led by SAD-B president Sukhbir Singh Badal insisted on setting preconditions for any alliance, misjudging the shifts within both parties. While the BJP has grown stronger, SAD-B’s base has steadily eroded.
The SAD-B leadership may need to reconsider its stance towards the BJP, as Punjab’s Jat Sikhs do not appear to harbour deep hostility towards the BJP.
If they could reconcile with the Congress after events like Operation Bluestar and the 1984 anti-Sikh riots, it stands to reason they may also accept the BJP.
From being BJP’s ‘Big Brother’ in Punjab for decades, SAD-B has now been completely sidelined, replaced by the BJP in the by-election arena across three out of four assembly segments.
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