Russia and Ukraine have been at war for over two years now. There appears to be no signs of the war ending between the two European countries. Israel and Hamas have been at war for over one and a half years now. Another theatre, the third one, has just opened up in South Asia between India and Pakistan.
Although the two countries are continuously insisting that they do not want any escalation, the ground realities suggest something else. The prospect of a full-fledged war is still looming large, although attempts are being made by certain countries to diffuse the situation.
The situation in South Asia, between India and Pakistan, threatens to get more serious than in Europe (between Russia and Ukraine) and the Middle East (between Israel and Hamas). Despite the massive imbalance between the actors there, like between Russia and Ukraine and Hamas and Israel, the war is still going on. Repeated announcements of ceasefire now and then have rarely materialised. Even if the ceasefire has been announced, it has not lasted beyond a few days.
Also read: India's bold response: When patience meets precision
In South Asia, there is also a massive disparity between the two countries. Pakistan of its own is no match to India. India enjoys massive superiority in conventional warfare over Pakistan on the land, in the sea and in the air. Pakistan is massively dependent on financial and military assistance from China. However, that aid and assistance will also come with a limit.
While China, despite being completely supportive of Pakistan, has observed diplomatic restrictions, Turkey and Azerbaijan have openly come in support of Pakistan. The Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) also remains supportive of Pakistan.
On the other hand, India has the unfailing support of Russia and Israel. India also signed a recent strategic partnership with Japan. The United States, which of late was seen to be more inclined towards India, particularly after Donald Trump took over, has so far maintained a neutral distance. US Vice President JD Vance made it categorically clear that his country will not intervene as it is none of their business.
Despite India having clearly mentioned that its action was only against the terrorist camps being run in that country and it did not intend to escalate it on military or civilian installations, Pakistan has continuously been provocative by repeatedly and regularly targeting major cities, airports and military installations in the North-Western part of the country. It started with a brutal attack on the civilian population in the Poonch area killing about 10 people.
Pakistan continues to target civilian and military installations since then. Had it not been for the air defence systems in place at sensitive locations, Pakistan’s attack through drones and missiles would have caused massive damage in the 15 cities it tried to target on Thursday, particularly Jammu.
Pakistan appears to be keen to escalate it to full-fledged war, apparently at the behest of China. Its army Chief Asim Munir is believed to be taking orders more from the Chinese than from its own political leaders. For China, a full-fledged war between India and Pakistan will be to its great advantage without any stakes getting involved anywhere. It will be using the proverbial “Pakistani shoulder” to target India.
India appears to have accepted and reconciled to the idea of a long-drawn, full-fledged war with its perennial hostile and rogue western neighbour, which has shown no keenness or inclination to de-escalate. Its leaders have been making only “strategic noise” for peace, while on the ground level the story is different.
Or there is a possibility that the Pakistan military chief does not listen to his political bosses. Otherwise they, Defence Minister Asim Khwaja, in particular, have been repeatedly asserting that Pakistan does not want any escalation.
General Munir has managed to build up “anti-India” rhetoric in his country posing himself to be the saviour of the Islamic State. He has been successful in using his personal radical inclinations, invoking and quoting the holy Quran extensively verbatim as he has memorised it, to garner the support of large sections of Pakistani population.
Although India was clear from day one that its action was only precise, specific and target-oriented, there appears to be growing acceptance that this is going to be a long-drawn conflict now. The public opinion across India is favouring a “decisive” and “once for all” action against the rogue state of Pakistan, particularly its army, which has been repeatedly abetting terrorism in India in pursuit of its theory of “bleeding India through one thousand cuts”.
The Chinese economic and strategic interests in Pakistan aside, this is eventually going to be a one-on-one fight between India and Pakistan. At best, Pakistan will get a regular supply of Chinese weapons. And having China on its side, it cannot expect any western country, particularly the United States, coming to its aid in any way. Rather, the US is now tilted towards India in terms of political support and supply of weapons, although, so far, it has maintained “strategic neutrality”.
India’s strategic relationship with Russia is generational. Russia remains an all-weather friend to India. The close relationship between Russia and China is an added advantage for India. Russia can prevail upon China to a great extent to remain neutral in the conflict between the two South Asian neighbours. Also, China has a lot of economic interests in India.
As South Asia looks on way to turning into the third theatre of a major conflict between two traditional rivals, is the world staring at World War III? Yet another war theatre will lead towards yet another round of realignments between different countries.
Just as it never looked like such a serious confrontation would take place between India and Pakistan till just two weeks ago before the Pahalgam terror attack, and it still happened, similarly multiple war theatres do not portend well for world peace. It may not necessarily lead to World War III, but it certainly will not be less dangerous and devastating.
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