challenging-times-for-indian-diplomacy-in-trump-era

When India was to take a position during the Russia-Ukraine War, it was supposedly the most difficult diplomatic decision. On one side was an all-weather friend like Russia and on the other was the United States, with which India has built up a strong diplomatic relationship during the last two decades. India still navigated it successfully without annoying anyone by adopting a neutral stance.

 

Credit must go the Joe Biden-led US administration that did not take offence to India’s autonomous diplomatic stand. India even bought the Russian oil. Imagine Trump having been in Biden’s place. He would have made things difficult for India, as he is trying to make them now. This is despite the fact he describes Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a friend.

 

Most Indians, and probably the Government of India also, under the mistaken belief thought that Trump would be more friendly with India, at least as compared to Pakistan, than the Democratic President Kamala Harris. However, Trump disappointed everyone in the aftermath of Pahalgam terror attack. Things were crystal clear. Pakistan supported terrorists struck in India killed 26 innocent tourists in Kashmir. India retaliated with targeted strikes on the terrorist bases.

 

Despite India being clear and forthright that it only targeted the terrorist bases and no civilian or military installations, Pakistan launched an all-out war on India. India retaliated, bringing Pakistan to its knees. So much so that Pakistan wanted a ceasefire within four days of the war for which, now, Trump has been claiming the credit that he “mediated” the ceasefire. However, of late, he has reportedly started saying that India and Pakistan reached the ceasefire on their own.

 

India has only reaffirmed and reiterated its stated position that it will accept no third-party mediation. It had been made clear to everyone. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance told a television news channel in the midst of the war that the US does not want to get into it, as it was none of its business. Within 24 hours, Trump claimed that he had brought about the ceasefire using the “trade” dangle for both the countries.

 

Prime Minister Modi had been placed in a piquant situation. Despite there being no truth in Trump’s mediation claims, he apparently did not want to confront and embarrass him publicly. Trump’s boasts apparently came from his ignorance about the South Asian relations, particularly those between India and Pakistan. He was apparently boasting about having brought about the ceasefire without realising that such claims can have serious political implication in a country like India, which will never accept a third-party mediation with Pakistan.

 

The Shimla Agreement signed between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the Bangladesh War makes it abundantly clear that the two countries will resolve all their outstanding issues bilaterally. Shimla Agreement makes it binding on both the countries that they cannot look for any third-party mediation, including the United Nations. Pakistan, however, has been quite frequently violating the provisions of the agreement by regularly raising the Kashmir issue in the United Nations.

 

Also read: India-Russia relationship: It’s complicated!

 

Now that Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly made it categorically clear to President Trump that India will not and will never accept any third-party mediation, his tone about the ceasefire has changed. A thirty-five-minute-long telephone conversation between Modi and Trump two days ago has set the record straight and its results were visible within no time, when the US President suggested for the first time, after the ceasing of hostilities, that the two countries reached out a ceasefire. Till now, he would always and only say that he facilitated the ceasefire.

 

Modi also made a point by declining an impromptu invitation by Trump to stop over in the US on his way back from the G-7 Summit in Canada. Probably Trump had not expected a refusal by Modi, who cited his pre-scheduled engagement with Croatia.

 

It was out of question for Modi to accept an invite from Trump in any case, particularly when he had been going all around the world saying that he had mediated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan and Modi had not corrected him. It would have simply suggested endorsing Trump’s baseless claims.

 

Also, Trump’s invite to Modi coincided with his already scheduled luncheon meeting with the Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. Trump has already acknowledged him to be the de facto ruler of Pakistan by negotiating a deal on Iran directly with him, instead of the country’s political leadership.

 

Given the unpredictable nature of Trump and given his diplomatic uncouthness, he could even “stage” a Modi-Munir encounter and reinforce his claims that he was a peace-broker between the two countries. With Trump, anything and everything is possible. Trump either is ignorant about the diplomatic realities and niceties between India and Pakistan or is taking these quite casually.

 

While Trump has reportedly made some amends to his claims of having negotiated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, there is no guarantee that he will stick to what he is saying now. His unpredictability is not restricted to what he says, but also extends to what he does. He has gone out of way to humour Pakistan, as it needs the country’s airbase for a possible attack on Iran. Trump conveniently ignored the harsh reality of Pakistan having shielded and protected the 9/11 mastermind, Osama bin Laden, besides other wanted terrorists.

 

As long as Pakistan allows itself to be used strategically and militarily, it is difficult to imagine that the US under Trump may take even a neutral stand, leave aside a pro-India stand. Thankfully, the Indian and American strategic interests do not clash with each other. Rather the strategic interests of the two countries converge. Despite that, the US has taken a position where it has overlooked genuine Indian concerns on Pakistan’s open and blatant support to terrorism with Munir on the forefront. There cannot be more challenging times for Indian diplomacy than these. And India has rightly and rightfully asserted its diplomatic and strategic independence.