President-elect Donald Trump is a little less than two months away from taking oath, but he has already ‘vowed’ to take a tough stance on China. Many believe, while some fear, that Trump’s anti-China statements will convert to anti-China policies once and as soon as he assumes charge of the Oval Office. His second term will largely continue from where he last left - strained relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Last week, the Chinese Embassy in Washington issued a statement that both US-China stand to lose if a trade war ensues. The statement came soon after Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports when he takes oath on January 20. An expected development, considering one of Trump’s key promises on the campaign trail was imposing tariffs as high as 60% on all Chinese imports to the US. The development is nothing less than an escalation, considering during his previous term he already raised tariffs on major Chinese products to 25%.
Are tariffs an advisable, sustainable move?
An avowed fan of tariffs, Trump has called them, “the greatest thing ever invented.” The President-elect ardently believes that tariffs will protect American manufacturing and businesses. Little wonder that he has vowed to enact stiff import duties from January, while announcing plans to also place a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada.
As for China, apart from duties, revocation of trade status also figures on his list. However, economists believe that imposing such restrictions will be mutually harmful, highlighting that it’s not only China and its export-driven economy that Trump’s steep tariffs will come to affect. During his first term, the Trump administration’s decision on Chinese goods led to an increased trade deficit and higher costs for consumers.
As per Federal Reserve estimates, US manufacturers as a result of the tariffs faced higher costs for raw materials, lost their edge in competitive pricing. Moreover, the retaliatory tariffs by other nations hit back causing the manufacturing jobs in the US to fall down. As per one of the analyses from Peterson Institute for International Economics, tariffs could eventually cost heavily to US families because of manufacturers passing the cost of tariffs to consumers.
What does Trump’s second term look like?
Trump’s cabinet pick seems to have the common denominator of anti-Chinese outlook.
Marco Rubio, his pick for Secretary of State, has called Beijing a threat. Mike Waltz, who’ll assume the role of Trump’s National Security Adviser, has opined that the US should get rid of other geopolitical affairs so it can focus solely on, “countering the greater threat from the Chinese Communist Party.”
How did US-China and Trump-Xi Jinping relations sour?
In China’s state and social media, Trump is often portrayed as an unpredictable figure, fit for memes and fun, dancing on YMCA and giving news-worthy one-liners and statements to American media.
After all, it was only in 2017, shortly after becoming the US President for the first time, that Trump was hosted by Xi. Their camaraderie made headlines as China bestowed ‘the guest of honour’ status, not granted to any US president before.
The area of Forbidden City in China was shut down as Trump took a tour of the imperial quarters along with Xi, was served Chinese delicacies for dinner and every moment was broadcast live on state sponsored media.
The tour was touted as the high-point in US-China relations, till the Covid pandemic broke out in Wuhan and Trump repeatedly called it “ the Chinese virus” and blamed Beijing for the mess the world faced.
From saying “I love China” shortly after announcing his presidential bid back in 2016, to accusing Beijing of being ‘a rapist’ of America, Trump’s polarising statements on China have been unpredictable and span a wide spectrum. Despite the trade war, in 2020 Trump declared that he and China's President “love each other.”
Fast forward to four years later and when Trump starts his second term, he encounters a much stronger Xi, currently ruling during his third term. China has also catapulted itself to the US’ equal.
As Trump introduced his new cabinet, China made a statement by relaying its biggest air show comprising fighter jet J35-A. China is only the second country after the US to be able to have two stealth fighter jets.
China’s almost aggressive stance on its territorial claims over Taiwan is likely to further cause political rift among the leaders. Not the one to back down, on November 30, he also threatened to slap a 100% tariff on the nine-member BRICS, if they tried replacing the US dollar with another currency. Either way, China again remains in the loop.
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