The terror attack in the picturesque tourist town of Pahalgam in northern part of Kashmir has the potential of severely derailing the progress of peace and normalcy, the valley has been witness to during the recent few years. It is the first ever attack on tourists in the recent past. There have been attacks on tourists, including the Amarnath pilgrims in the past, but during the last few years, everything seemed to be normal.
The attack on the tourists in Pahalgam must be viewed in the backdrop of the recent statement of Pakistan army Chief Asif Munir, who continued to harp on the theme of ‘Kashmir being the jugular vein of Pakistan’.
Recent years, particularly since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, have seen a massive rise in the influx of tourists to Kashmir. While the spring is just starting, the number of tourists visiting the valley has crossed record numbers. During the first few weeks of the opening up of the iconic ‘Tulip Garden’ in Srinagar, the number of visitors had crossed five lakhs, most of them non-locals.
Airline fares have also shot up in the Kashmir circuit due to the heavy rush of tourists flying from rest of the country. The hotels are reporting full occupancy. People have to book their stay well in advance and so is the case with the air tickets.
Anybody and everybody who visits Kashmir from the rest of the country, comes back with overwhelmingly positive stories. People of Kashmir, by nature, are quite hospitable. The tourists and travelers feel at home in Kashmir. This debunks the perception that “Kashmir is not safe”.
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has quite often been saying and warning that the massive flow of tourists to Kashmir should not be seen as any indication of return to normalcy. He is “partially” right. The security situation in Kashmir remains as fragile as has been proved with the Pahalgam attack on tourists.
While his observations must be based on some special inputs, he has more reasons to counter the “normalcy narrative” of the Central government, which has been continuously claiming that Kashmir has “normalised” a lot after the abrogation of Article 370.
The security situation has indeed improved a lot in the aftermath of the abrogation of the Article 370, but rushing to the conclusion of everything being normal would mean reading too much into it.
The massive flow of tourists into Kashmir may not necessarily be reflective of the “complete normalcy” there, but it is definitely indicative of a “positive change” in the valley. There are no more repeated and regular shutdowns and curfews in Kashmir. The life of the common man is going as normal.
The tourist inflow has provided a major boost to the local economy. It is not only those who are directly connected with tourism who get benefitted, but other sections of the society as well. The boom in the tourism industry has a massive ripple effect on trade and business, which are also improving.
Naturally, this is not good news for Pakistan, its army and its inter-services intelligence. As normalcy in Kashmir becomes a routine, people would discourage and distance themselves from anything that leads to unrest and violence. That is actually happening in Kashmir right now. People are heaving a sigh of relief there. Everybody likes things to be normal, particularly those who have seen the violence, the bloodshed, repeated shutdowns and curfews.
There are two important things to be noted. One, the return of normalcy is not complete and foolproof in Kashmir. It never can be unless and until Pakistan, particularly its military establishment believes that Kashmir is its “jugular vein”.
Two, people of Kashmir will take some time to integrate psychologically with the mainstream. They had been fed with fake and illusionary dreams with myths like “distinct identity” and “special status”. They have realised that everything was a myth.
This all will be neutralised with the “physical integration”. The abrogation of Article 370 has removed the psychological barrier. Direct interaction among the people, which has already started with the massive tourist inflow, will further improve once the train between Kashmir and the rest of the country starts to chug in. The situation will be completely different. The Government of India must, on top most priority, start the train services between Kashmir and the rest of the country.
So far the Government of India has made all the right moves. The Pakistan army and the ISI will try to keep on resisting such moves. Terror attacks in places like Pahalgam and earlier in different parts of Jammu region are signs of frustration. Terrorists will keep on trying to sabotage and derail peace. It will definitely require greater intelligence and greater coordination among the security agencies. This is not to suggest that there is not already good coordination. After all, Kashmir has mostly remained peaceful so far.
First and foremost priority of both the Central as well as the local governments will be to restore the faith and confidence of the tourists. Otherwise, one single incident, even when it is an isolated one, can have a massively damaging impact. It must be neutraliSed. People of Kashmir have an equally important role in preserving the peace. They can help and assist the government identifying the trouble mongers.
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