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The story begins in 2019—a race for the Chief Minister’s (CM) seat in Maharashtra and, in a way, a race against oneself. Devendra Fadnavis, who served as Maharashtra’s CM from 2014 to 2019, was poised to reclaim the position.

 

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing a landslide victory in the state elections, questions arose about how the party achieved such a feat. Contesting 149 seats—just five more than the majority mark of 14the BJP won 132, achieving an extraordinary strike rate of 89%.

 

Such a performance is rare in politics, particularly after being out of power for half the previous term due to betrayal by its ally, Shiv Sena. What if the BJP had contested all the seats? While intriguing, politics isn’t just about numbers; it is a complex game influenced by strategy, alliances, and history.

 

In 2014, under the Modi wave following his election as Prime Minister, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra, winning 122 seats. Despite pre-poll alliance talks failing with Shiv Sena, the two natural allies formed a post-poll alliance.

 

Devendra Fadnavis became CM, leading the BJP-Shiv Sena coalition to a smooth tenure, often dubbed the “double-engine sarkar.” Maharashtra witnessed significant development during this period, cementing Fadnavis’s reputation as an efficient leader.

 

Fast forward to 2019. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance swept Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections, securing 41 out of 48 seats. The BJP’s national tally of 303 seats was bolstered significantly by Maharashtra’s contribution.

 

As assembly elections loomed, Fadnavis was tasked with leading the campaign. A pre-poll alliance was finalised, with the BJP contesting 152 seats and Shiv Sena 124. Fadnavis, the BJP’s young and dynamic face, was the undisputed CM candidate.

 

However, the assembly election results threw up a surprise. BJP emerged as the single largest party with 105 seats, a dip from 2014, while Shiv Sena secured 56 seats. This result opened Pandora’s box.

 

Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena’s leader, insisted on becoming CM, a demand that strained the alliance. Shiv Sena’s refusal to compromise broke the pre-poll alliance, forcing the BJP to explore alternatives.

 

In an unprecedented move, Fadnavis struck a deal with Ajit Pawar, leader of a faction within the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which had won 54 seats. Ajit Pawar and over 40 NCP MLAs backed the BJP, forming a government with Fadnavis as CM.

 

However, this arrangement collapsed within 80 hours, as Sharad Pawar, the NCP patriarch, rallied his party, and the rebel MLAs withdrew support. The political manoeuvre failed, leading to Fadnavis’s resignation.

 

The collapse of the BJP-NCP alliance paved the way for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an unlikely coalition of Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress, with Uddhav Thackeray as CM.

 

This alliance marked a historic shift in Maharashtra’s politics. Uddhav, who had not contested the assembly elections, assumed the CM post but faced challenges.

 

His tenure was overshadowed by controversies, including the Palghar lynching, the mysterious deaths of Disha Salian and Sushant Singh Rajput, and the killing of Umesh Kolhe over communal feuds. These incidents, coupled with internal dissent, weakened the MVA government.

 

In June 2022, Eknath Shinde led a dramatic rebellion, with over 40 Shiv Sena MLAs defecting to support the BJP. This rebellion brought down the MVA government.

 

Fadnavis returned to power as Deputy CM, with Shinde becoming CM, in a reconstituted BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. The coalition, now branded as "Mahayuti," adopted Hindutva as its core agenda and functioned effectively.

 

In another twist, Ajit Pawar and a faction of NCP MLAs joined the Mahayuti in 2023. Although the BJP-Shinde government already had a majority, Ajit Pawar’s entry added complexity to Maharashtra’s political dynamics. Court battles ensued over party symbols and names, with both Shiv Sena and NCP factions claiming legitimacy.

 

The 2024 general elections proved challenging for the Mahayuti. Despite contesting as a united front, they faced a resurgent MVA. BJP fought 28 seats, Shinde’s Shiv Sena 15, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 4.

 

On the other hand, the MVA allocated 21 seats to Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, 17 to Congress, and 10 to Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The results were stark: the MVA won 30 seats, while the BJP managed only 9, Shinde’s faction 7, and Ajit Pawar 1.

 

This setback led to introspection within the BJP, with Fadnavis facing criticism. Despite the blame, the central leadership, including PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, backed Fadnavis, entrusting him with the task of leading the BJP in the November 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections.

 

Seat-sharing was meticulously planned: the BJP contested 148 seats, Shinde’s faction 81, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 59. The strategy ensured the BJP's dominance within the alliance in such a way that BJP if it can perform good, would not be needing both the alliance parties for them to form the govt.

 

As Ajit Pawar does not have a reputation of being a loyal partner in politics, and the other vital point being one can never rule out Sharad Pawar’s strategies either at National level politics or even Panchayat level politics.

 

The campaign was powered by Hindu uniting slogans such as Yogi Adityanath’s “Batenge Toh Katenge” and Modi’s “Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai.” The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) played a crucial role in mobilising voter turnout.

 

Fadnavis focused on issues that resonated with voters, such as the Shivaji statue controversy and local crime cases, while avoiding the baggage of past controversies.

 

On election day, the BJP's strategy paid off. They have emerged as the single largest party with 132 seats, now securing the CM post for Fadnavis if they decide to make him. The Mahayuti coalition has retained power, which now ensures stability for the next five years. 

 

As the BJP being the single largest party has dominance in the political stance of the alliance and would need either of the alliance partners only. Fadnavis’s comeback marks a new chapter in Maharashtra’s political history as he prepares to steer the state and contribute to the BJP's vision for the future, including the “One Nation, One Election” agenda.