Haryana has an unbroken record for a long time of going along with the party/alliance that is in power at the centre. The electoral records and results of the last three decades suggest that the state has consistently voted for the party/alliance at the centre.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has been in power in the state for the last ten years. Much against the perception of anti-incumbency against the BJP government, on the ground, the situation appears to be quite fluid. BJP may be on the defensive and down, but it certainly is not out.
In 1991, Haryana went along with the Congress while it was the Congress government at the centre.
In 1996, Haryana went along with the Haryana Vikas Party-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance headed by Bansi Lal. Although the BJP was not able to sustain the government at the centre in 1996 as it lasted for just 13 days, it did emerge as the single largest party and formed the government at the centre.
In the 2000 assembly elections, Haryana went along with the BJP-INLD alliance while it was the BJP-led NDA government at the centre.
In 2005 and 2009, Haryana went along with the Congress, while it was the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government at the centre.
In 2014 and 2019, Haryana again went with the party ruling at the centre as the BJP won both these elections, while its government was at the centre.
Now, as the state goes for assembly polls, history might repeat itself, although the BJP is faced with a tough challenge from the Congress. But BJP does remain firmly and strongly rooted in the state and has a strong chance of repeating the victory and history.
What happened in 2024 General Elections
In the recently held General Elections, the BJP could manage to retain five of the ten parliamentary constituencies. This was half of the number it had won in 2019. The Congress made substantial gains by winning five. It had drawn a blank in the previous General Elections held in 2019.
However, the BJP led in 44 of the 90 assembly segments, two more than the Congress, as it (the Congress) led from 42 assembly segments.
The Aam Aadmi Party, which fought the election in alliance with the Congress as part of the INDIA bloc led in 4 assembly segments falling in the Kurukshetra parliamentary constituency. It however lost the lone seat it contested from Haryana in the General Elections.
The Congress is in a robust spirit hoping to consolidate further over its parliamentary performance, which though was not the best, but reasonably good as compared to the previous General Elections.
The Congress is expecting to improve upon its parliamentary performance on the assumption that the factors at play during the assembly elections are entirely different from what these are during the parliamentary elections, to its advantage.
The General Elections were centred around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Besides, there was the issue of the construction of the ‘Ram Temple’ in Ayodhya, which worked in the BJP’s favour in the General Elections.
A different scenario in the assembly polls
For the assembly elections, the issues are entirely different and more local than national.
Unemployment, law and order, rising prices and farmers’ issues may play dominant roles during these elections. Plus the candidates also matter much more in the assembly elections than in the parliamentary elections.
Ten years is definitely a long period for a state government to face “anti-incumbency” sentiment. However, in a state like Haryana, there is also an important factor, and that is the “caste-factor”. Like in some other states, Haryana elections do get influenced along the caste and sectarian lines.
The Congress is predominantly dependent on Jat/farmer votes. Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda remains the most popular Jat leader in the state right now. He has made deep inroads even in the strong bastions of the Indian National Lok Dal of the ‘Devi Lal family’.
The Jat/farmer voters are mostly consolidated “against” the BJP, primarily over the agriculture laws, which were withdrawn later and the subsequent agitation. Besides, the BJP has made two Chief Ministers during the last ten years and none of them was a Jat. While Manohar Lal Khattar was a Punjabi Khatri, Nayab Singh Saini is an OBC.
There is a strong likelihood of the Jat/farmer votes predominantly getting consolidated behind the Congress. The ‘Khaps’ will try to ensure that the “anti-BJP vote” does not get divided between Hooda and the Devi Lal family, which is represented by his grandson Abhay Chautala and a great-grandson separately.
His great-grandson Dushyant Chautala, son of Ajay Chautala, who is heading the Jannayak Janta Party and served as the Deputy Chief Minister in the outgoing coalition government till the recent past, has lost most of his support base among the Jat/farmer community.
The Congress however cannot bank upon the Jat/farmer votes exclusively. It has managed to make some inroads into the Dalit sections. Whether that will translate into a “victory figure” will remain to be seen.
The Congress is also faced with the perennial problem of factionalism in Haryana with competitive ‘Chief Ministerial aspirants’, which may end up in a ‘fratricidal’ war as the elections come closer.
An upper hand for BJP?
On the other hand, the BJP has the advantage of being in power for ten years. It has effectively managed to consolidate the non-Jat voters in its favour. At the same time, it does have quite a few influential Jat leaders in its fold including the family of veteran and popular former Chief Minister Bansi Lal. His daughter-in-law Kiran Chaudhary recently resigned from the Congress and joined the BJP.
That the BJP cannot be wished away, was proved in the parliamentary elections as it has still managed to retain 46.11 vote share against 47.61 of the Congress, even after being in power for ten years.
The BJP has another advantage of the opposition votes getting divided.
Although it is primarily a contest between the BJP and the Congress, as other parties like the Indian National Lok Dal, the Jannayak Janata Party and the Aam Aadmi Party remain marginal forces only, these can still make or mar the chances of different candidates in different constituencies.
Most of the votes these parties will get will be the “anti-BJP” vote, thus providing an advantage to the ruling party.
It will be a tough call to make in Haryana this time although the Congress is seen on the ascendancy. Whether it will ascend to victory is a million-dollar question as history is not on its side.
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