haryana-jk-defeats-carry-bigger-lessons-for-congress

Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir defeats have a much bigger message for the Congress, Rahul Gandhi in particular, only if he understands. That Gandhi misread and misinterpreted the 2024 General Elections goes without doubt.

 

Asserting that the Congress party with just ‘99’ seats defeated the Bharatiya Janata Party which won 242 seats, more than the “combined” number of the INDIA bloc, is proving to be his undoing. Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir are just the beginning, if he does not make a course correction right away. 

 

Winning “99” seats, thus doubling the 2019 tally, indeed must be a “great win” for Rahul Gandhi and his family personally as it helped them to retain control over the party, but it is not a win for the Congress.

 

It is a “massive and emphatic defeat” for the Congress that for the third consecutive term, the grand old party could not touch the triple-figure mark. 

 

Conversely, for the third time the Bharatiya Janata Party managed to form the government, of course with the allies as it fell short of the majority on its own and for the third consecutive term Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of the country, a rare feat only achieved by Pandit Nehru in the past. 

 

Understandably, the spin masters in the party helped to create a “euphoric” atmosphere where the Congress workers across the country started believing that they had “really won” and the BJP and Modi had “really been defeated”.

 

The level of “euphoria” was such that nobody ever thought that the BJP was very much in power and Modi was very much the Prime Minister. 

 

This much moral boosting was needed and necessary at the time of results. But the Congress instead has stuck to the “delusion” of its victory.

Rahul still convinced of a ‘victory’

 

As Rahul believed that he was “successful” in “defeating” Modi in the General Elections, he naturally believed that his narrative of “constitution in danger”, while showing its copies to people, “caste census”, maligning the “big business”, also demonising the “general category” by gross misinterpretation and distortion of facts and figures and suggesting removing the 50 per cent bar on reservations in the country. 

 

This narrative did not find much appeal in the General Elections. Had it really been found to be attractive, the Congress might well have improved its tally further. If the Congress won “99” seats, a substantial number of these in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu were won with the due support of the allies. Had the Congress fought the elections alone, its tally may again have ended up in the “50s” only.

 

With such a strong “delusion” that the General Election campaign narrative helped him “defeat” Modi, Rahul had all the reasons to repeat the same narrative in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. At both the places the narrative failed miserably as it was outrightly rejected by people.

 

While in Haryana, the BJP won, in JK, it is primarily the National Conference that won with 42 seats. The Congress managed just “6” seats in a house of “90”, which obviously amounts to a devastating defeat, worse than the one in Haryana. But the party has a consolation that the INDIA bloc won in JK and it played the INDIA “victory” up, bringing itself at par with the BJP, saying the verdict was 1:1. 

 

Rahul Gandhi’s narrative of “90 per cent” population having been left out and only “five per cent” population having “grabbed” all the resources of the country, including the positions of power whether in government, bureaucracy, media, judiciary or the corporate world, does not find resonance anywhere. Rahul apparently believes that the people of the country will take him at face value.

The people are no longer uninformed

 

However, in the twenty-first century with everyone having extensive access to information, people already know everything. You only need to “reiterate and reaffirm” to them what they already know. But if you tell them that “90 per cent” people have been “left out” and only “five” per cent, by Rahul Gandhi’s calculations, they obviously are not going to accept it when that is not the case at the ground level.

 

It is a fact that still a considerable section of the country’s population is still marginalised and not part of the growth story, but exaggerating, rather distorting the figures in such a way only proves counterproductive and it actually has proved so for Congress. 

 

The caste census and removing the 50 per cent bar on reservations is not only going to be disastrous for the country, but it proved disastrous for the Congress also, although Rahul is possibly having different opinions. 

 

Rahul’s narrative only reminds of and revives the horrible memories of Mandal's days. Rahul appears to be following the “Mandal Model” introduced by former Prime Minister Vishwa Nath Pratap Singh, which at one time destroyed the social fabric of the country. 

 

The Samajwadi Party then led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Prasad Yadav did benefit from the Mandal politics as they combined backward class castes with the Muslim minorities. The Mandal politics has already outlived itself. 

 

Caste-based approach not a hit, even within the Congress

Even a section of leaders within the Congress is not comfortable with the “caste-based” approach of the party, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been alleging is the Congress’ attempt to divide the Hindu society. It actually is a way to break the “Hindutva” narrative that seeks to unite all castes within the Hindu community. The caste census goes contrary to that theme. 

 

Both Haryana and the Jammu region in Jammu and Kashmir are predominantly Hindu majority places, with a considerable population belonging to Scheduled Castes and other marginalised sections. By giving an emphatic victory to the BJP in both places, people have rejected the idea of “rejuvenating” the caste politics in the country. 

 

This is a clear message to the Congress in general and Rahul Gandhi in particular that the strategy, narrative and theme for coming assembly elections must be changed, at least for Maharashtra and later in Delhi. 

 

If Gandhi believes, which he actually does, that his “caste” oriented politics is going to deliver him any victories, he may be feeling exaggeratingly too optimistic, while he is actually “misled”. 

 

The strategy did not work in the General Elections, although he believes it worked. 

 

It did not work in Haryana and Jammu and it is not going to work in Maharashtra and Delhi and in fact nowhere else. 

 

Better Congress and Rahul learn a lesson. Sooner they do, the better it will be for them.